Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W61-9 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:29% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:60% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:52% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:47% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:59% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:76% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:3% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:37% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:26% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.9% | 95.3% |
| 6-2 | 8.7% | 37.5% |
| 5-3 | 20.6% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 28.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 24.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 11.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.3% (-0.1%) | 5.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 5.5% (+0.1%) | 5.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.3% (-0.1%) | 5.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 5.5% (+0.1%) | 5.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.3% (-0.1%) | 5.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.1% (+0.7%) | 5.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 5.1% (-0.3%) | 5.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 5.4% (-0.0%) | 5.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.1% (-0.3%) | 5.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 5.7% (+0.3%) | 5.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.6% (+0.3%) | 5.3% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
0.3%Any 2 losses
88.0%
2.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
99.2%
0.1%97.7%
0.2%97.0%
0.3%
96.2%
0.1%95.1%
0.2%94.4%
<0.1%
93.9%
0.4%
93.2%
0.5%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
37.1%
8.6%65.1%
<0.1%63.8%
<0.1%60.7%
0.2%58.7%
0.1%57.1%
0.1%57.1%
0.1%56.8%
<0.1%54.2%
0.1%53.2%
<0.1%53.0%
0.3%48.1%
0.2%47.3%
0.1%46.3%
0.4%45.6%
<0.1%44.8%
0.5%44.1%
0.1%42.8%
0.3%41.6%
0.4%40.7%
0.2%38.4%
0.3%35.9%
0.3%35.1%
0.6%34.3%
0.1%32.5%
0.5%32.4%
0.8%32.1%
0.3%30.7%
0.8%18.2%
1.2%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14