Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W38-21 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W70-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:50% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:14% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:54% | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:60% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:25% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:53% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:41% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:70% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:13% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.4% | 64.3% |
| 7-2 | 3.2% | 5.4% |
| 6-3 | 12.1% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 25.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 20.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 7.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.6% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.2%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Indiana
Washington State
Rutgers
Wisconsin
Michigan
Michigan State
PurdueCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
RutgersMichigan
Notre DameCCG: 0.6% • Scenario: 21.7%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
64.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
80.0%
<0.1%
77.8%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%
60.0%
<0.1%
54.2%
<0.1%
52.6%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
12.6%
1.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%9.3%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.3%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.4%
0.4%1.5%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
5.6%
1.5%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.2%
0.2%5.7%
0.2%5.6%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.3%
0.4%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14