Big Ten Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-14
Conference Standings
| T1 |  OregonORE | 1-0 | 3-0 | 44.3% | |
| T1 |  USCUSC | 1-0 | 3-0 | 24.4% | |
| T3 |  Penn StatePSU | 0-0 | 3-0 | 65.5% | |
| T3 |  Ohio StateOSU | 0-0 | 3-0 | 44.8% | |
| T3 |  IndianaIU | 0-0 | 3-0 | 11.0% | |
| T3 |  MichiganMICH | 0-0 | 2-1 | 4.7% | |
| T3 |  NebraskaNEB | 0-0 | 3-0 | 2.5% | |
| T3 |  IllinoisILL | 0-0 | 3-0 | 0.9% | |
| T3 |  IowaIOWA | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0.6% | |
| T3 |  MinnesotaMINN | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0.6% | |
| T3 |  WashingtonWASH | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0.5% | |
| T3 |  WisconsinWIS | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0.2% | |
| T3 |  RutgersRUTG | 0-0 | 3-0 | 0.1% | |
| T3 |  MarylandMD | 0-0 | 3-0 | <0.1% | |
| T3 |  Michigan StateMSU | 0-0 | 3-0 | - | |
| T3 |  NorthwesternNU | 0-1 | 1-2 | - | |
| T3 |  PurduePUR | 0-1 | 2-1 | - | |
| T3 |  UCLAUCLA | 0-0 | 0-3 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 65.5%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 64.5% (-0.9%) | 65.7% (+0.2%) | |
| 65.4% (-0.1%) | 65.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 65.3% (-0.2%) | 65.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 65.7% (+0.2%) | 65.2% (-0.3%) | |
| 65.7% (+0.2%) | 65.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 64.5% (-1.0%) | 66.5% (+1.0%) | |
| 70.3% (+4.8%) | 65.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 67.1% (+1.6%) | 65.5% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Illinois
Washington State
Oregon StatePurdueCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NebraskaCCG: 66.5% • Scenario: 51.7%
Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn StatePSU | 100% | 91.1% | 17.2% | <0.1% | 65.5% |
| Ohio StateOSU | 99.9% | 69.5% | 9.0% | <0.1% | 44.8% |
| OregonORE | 100% | 91.5% | 22.5% | <0.1% | 44.3% |
| USCUSC | 99.9% | 45.1% | 2.9% | - | 24.4% |
| IndianaIU | 99.5% | 57.9% | 3.2% | - | 11.0% |
| MichiganMICH | 100% | 49.1% | 2.4% | - | 4.7% |
| NebraskaNEB | 99.3% | 59.9% | 5.1% | - | 2.5% |
| IllinoisILL | 100% | 60.0% | 5.5% | - | 0.9% |
| IowaIOWA | 100% | 95.7% | 27.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| MinnesotaMINN | 100% | 52.8% | 2.2% | - | 0.6% |
| WashingtonWASH | 100% | 64.3% | 5.4% | - | 0.5% |
| WisconsinWIS | 100% | 93.3% | 20.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| RutgersRUTG | 100% | 89.3% | 18.9% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| MarylandMD | 100% | 38.3% | 2.0% | - | <0.1% |
| Michigan StateMSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| NorthwesternNU | - | - | 66.7% | - | - |
| PurduePUR | - | - | - | - | - |
| UCLAUCLA | - | - | 33.3% | - | - |
Data from 2025-09-14
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn StatePSU(0-0) | 23.6% | 41.0% | 26.1% | 7.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.8 |
| Ohio StateOSU(0-0) | 15.5% | 38.0% | 31.0% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.5 |
| USCUSC(1-0) | 8.5% | 33.0% | 35.6% | 17.7% | 4.5% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 7.2 |
| OregonORE(1-0) | 8.1% | 30.8% | 35.4% | 18.9% | 5.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 7.1 |
| IndianaIU(0-0) | 1.6% | 14.2% | 36.8% | 31.6% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5 |
| MichiganMICH(0-0) | 0.8% | 6.7% | 22.1% | 32.2% | 24.8% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.8 |
| NebraskaNEB(0-0) | 0.1% | 2.8% | 12.9% | 26.9% | 30.2% | 18.9% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.2 |
| MinnesotaMINN(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 6.2% | 20.4% | 32.0% | 26.1% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| IllinoisILL(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 5.2% | 16.8% | 29.2% | 27.9% | 15.0% | 4.3% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| WashingtonWASH(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 12.1% | 25.1% | 29.5% | 20.4% | 7.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 4.2 |
| IowaIOWA(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 7.1% | 19.1% | 29.4% | 26.3% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 0.3% | 3.8 |
| MarylandMD(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 5.2% | 14.3% | 25.3% | 27.7% | 18.5% | 6.7% | 1.0% | 3.4 |
| WisconsinWIS(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 14.0% | 26.6% | 29.0% | 18.2% | 6.2% | 0.8% | 3.4 |
| RutgersRUTG(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 13.3% | 26.5% | 30.3% | 19.3% | 5.9% | 0.6% | 3.3 |
| NorthwesternNU(0-1) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 5.3% | 20.8% | 39.4% | 27.8% | 6.0% | 1.9 |
| UCLAUCLA(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 6.7% | 21.0% | 33.8% | 28.2% | 9.1% | 1.9 |
| Michigan StateMSU(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 14.4% | 32.5% | 35.9% | 13.3% | 1.6 |
| PurduePUR(0-1) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 4.4% | 18.3% | 40.9% | 35.7% | 0.9 |
Data from 2025-09-14