Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W47-7 | |
| 4 | 9/19 | Win prob:55% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:32% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:51% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:12% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:65% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:19% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:17% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:87% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:40% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 95.7% |
| 7-2 | 1.6% | 27.4% |
| 6-3 | 7.1% | 0.2% |
| 5-4 | 19.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 26.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 12.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 3.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% (+0.1%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.4%) | 0.1% (-0.5%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.2%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Indiana
WashingtonIowa
Wisconsin
Michigan
Michigan State
PurdueCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IowaCCG: 1.0% • Scenario: 54.6%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.1%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
94.3%
<0.1%
93.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
27.9%
1.6%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.3%
0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%27.8%
0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%18.9%
0.1%18.2%
0.3%17.3%
0.2%Any 3 losses
1.5%
0.7%33.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14