MichiganWolverines

2-1 T3rd (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

4.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsNew MexicoUNM	W34-17
2	9/06	@OklahomaOU	L13-24
3	9/13	vsCentral MichiganCMU	W63-3
4	9/20	@NebraskaNEB	Win prob:48%
6	10/04	vsWisconsinWIS	Win prob:74%
7	10/11	@USCUSC	Win prob:23%
8	10/18	vsWashingtonWASH	Win prob:75%
9	10/25	@Michigan StateMSU	Win prob:84%
10	11/01	vsPurduePUR	Win prob:95%
12	11/15	vsNorthwesternNU(N)	Win prob:88%
13	11/22	@MarylandMD	Win prob:72%
14	11/29	vsOhio StateOSU	Win prob:26%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.8%	100.0%
8-1	6.7%	49.1%
7-2	22.1%	2.4%
6-3	32.2%	0%
5-4	24.8%	0%
4-5	10.5%	0%
3-6	2.5%	0%
2-7	0.4%	0%
1-8	0.0%	0%
0-9	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

44.6%

22.1%

19.0%

9.4%

4.8%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
IllinoisILL@IndianaIU	4.8% (+0.1%)	4.6% (-0.0%)
WashingtonWASH@Washington StateWSU	4.6% (-0.0%)	4.7% (+0.0%)
Oregon StateORST@OregonORE	4.7% (+0.0%)	4.7% (+0.0%)
IowaIOWA@RutgersRUTG	4.7% (+0.0%)	4.6% (-0.0%)
MarylandMD@WisconsinWIS	4.7% (+0.1%)	4.6% (-0.0%)
MichiganMICH@NebraskaNEB	8.2% (+3.5%)	1.4% (-3.3%)
Michigan StateMSU@USCUSC	5.4% (+0.7%)	4.6% (-0.0%)
PurduePUR@Notre DameND	5.3% (+0.7%)	4.7% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Indiana

Washington

Oregon State

Rutgers

Wisconsin

Michigan

Michigan State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Michigan

CCG: 8.2% • Scenario: 48.3%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.8%

Any 1 loss

49.1%

6.7%

67.0%

0.3%

66.1%

0.1%

64.1%

0.3%

63.4%

0.3%

63.2%

<0.1%

62.6%

0.8%

55.4%

0.2%

46.6%

2.6%

39.1%

2.2%

Any 2 losses

2.4%

22.1%

18.8%

<0.1%

14.4%

0.1%

12.8%

<0.1%

11.6%

<0.1%

10.9%

<0.1%

10.9%

<0.1%

10.7%

0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.4%

0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

8.8%

<0.1%

7.9%

0.1%

7.6%

0.3%

6.5%

<0.1%

5.8%

0.3%

5.6%

0.3%

4.5%

<0.1%

4.3%

0.2%

3.8%

1.1%

3.6%

0.2%

3.4%

0.9%

3.1%

0.9%

3.0%

0.9%

2.9%

0.4%

2.3%

0.5%

2.2%

2.9%

2.1%

0.8%

2.0%

2.4%

2.0%

0.8%

1.7%

0.1%

1.5%

0.5%

1.4%

0.3%

0.9%

7.5%

1.8%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com