Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W17-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W42-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L14-38 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:70% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:26% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:49% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:15% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:8% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:59% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:15% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:55% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:41% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 93.3% |
| 7-2 | 0.7% | 20.4% |
| 6-3 | 4.3% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 14.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 26.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 29.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 18.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.2%) | 0.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Indiana
Washington
IowaWisconsin
Michigan
Michigan State
PurdueCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WisconsinCCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 70.1%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
93.6%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
95.2%
<0.1%
87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
20.2%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%
75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.3%
<0.1%16.8%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%Any 3 losses
3.6%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14