Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
24.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W73-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W59-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W33-17 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:96% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:76% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:77% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:13% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:96% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:29% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 8.5% | 99.9% |
| 8-1 | 33.0% | 45.1% |
| 7-2 | 35.6% | 2.9% |
| 6-3 | 17.7% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 26.9% (+2.4%) | 24.0% (-0.5%) | |
| 24.6% (+0.2%) | 24.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 24.2% (-0.3%) | 24.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 24.8% (+0.4%) | 24.0% (-0.4%) | |
| 24.9% (+0.4%) | 24.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 24.3% (-0.1%) | 24.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 7.5% (-16.9%) | 25.2% (+0.7%) | |
| 23.6% (-0.9%) | 24.5% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Illinois
Oregon State
Maryland
PurdueCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
USCCCG: 25.2% • Scenario: 95.8%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.9%
1.1%Any 1 loss
79.7%
11.7%
99.9%
7.4%
74.4%
<0.1%61.2%
0.4%
56.6%
0.3%
56.5%
0.5%
55.2%
<0.1%
53.6%
0.3%
50.9%
<0.1%
37.9%
2.7%Any 2 losses
40.1%
32.6%61.0%
0.3%60.4%
0.3%60.2%
1.6%58.0%
3.3%57.9%
2.4%55.7%
0.3%53.0%
2.2%38.0%
18.2%29.4%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.1%
0.2%4.0%
0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.3%
0.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.2%
1.2%2.2%
0.1%2.0%
0.6%1.9%
0.9%1.8%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%Any 3 losses
3.0%
30.7%36.4%
<0.1%15.3%
0.1%13.8%
0.1%12.5%
0.1%12.4%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
1.0%8.3%
0.1%7.3%
0.5%6.7%
0.7%6.1%
0.1%5.9%
0.7%5.7%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
1.0%4.3%
0.5%3.4%
0.8%3.0%
0.8%2.9%
0.8%2.4%
3.8%1.9%
8.0%1.8%
5.6%1.6%
5.4%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14