Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-19 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:16% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:24% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:85% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:17% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:47% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:65% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:73% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.8% | 60.0% |
| 7-2 | 5.2% | 5.5% |
| 6-3 | 16.8% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 29.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 15.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4% (+2.6%) | 0.3% (-0.5%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.3%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.2%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.3%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Illinois
Oregon State
Rutgers
Nebraska
Michigan StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IllinoisCCG: 3.4% • Scenario: 16.6%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
60.1%
0.8%
84.6%
<0.1%
82.3%
<0.1%
72.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%
59.1%
0.1%
58.3%
0.2%
53.9%
0.3%
50.0%
<0.1%
42.9%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
5.6%
5.1%33.3%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
0.3%9.9%
0.3%9.3%
<0.1%8.8%
0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.5%
0.2%7.0%
0.3%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
0.2%6.5%
0.1%6.2%
0.1%5.5%
0.3%3.3%
1.2%3.0%
0.7%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.2%
0.8%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14