OregonDucks

3-0 T1st (1-0) in B1G

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

44.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsMontana StateMTST	W59-13
2	9/06	vsOklahoma StateOKST	W69-3
3	9/13	@NorthwesternNU	W34-14
4	9/20	vsOregon StateORST	Win prob:98%
5	9/27	@Penn StatePSU	Win prob:30%
7	10/11	vsIndianaIU	Win prob:74%
8	10/18	@RutgersRUTG	Win prob:88%
9	10/25	vsWisconsinWIS	Win prob:92%
11	11/08	@IowaIOWA	Win prob:81%
12	11/14	vsMinnesotaMINN	Win prob:92%
13	11/22	vsUSCUSC	Win prob:71%
14	11/29	@WashingtonWASH	Win prob:87%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	8.1%	100.0%
8-1	30.8%	91.5%
7-2	35.4%	22.5%
6-3	18.9%	0.1%
5-4	5.7%	0%
4-5	0.9%	0%
3-6	0.1%	0%
2-7	0%	0%
1-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

55.0%

27.4%

10.7%

4.5%

2.3%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
IllinoisILL@IndianaIU	44.8% (+0.5%)	44.2% (-0.1%)
WashingtonWASH@Washington StateWSU	44.2% (-0.1%)	44.3% (+0.1%)
Oregon StateORST@OregonORE	44.4% (+0.1%)	44.3% (+0.0%)
IowaIOWA@RutgersRUTG	44.3% (+0.0%)	44.3% (-0.0%)
MarylandMD@WisconsinWIS	44.0% (-0.3%)	44.4% (+0.1%)
MichiganMICH@NebraskaNEB	43.7% (-0.6%)	44.8% (+0.6%)
Michigan StateMSU@USCUSC	47.2% (+2.9%)	44.1% (-0.1%)
PurduePUR@Notre DameND	44.1% (-0.2%)	44.3% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Illinois

Washington State

Oregon State

Purdue

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Wisconsin

Nebraska

CCG: 45.2% • Scenario: 36.4%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

7.9%

Any 1 loss

91.6%

30.3%

100.0%

0.1%

98.9%

1.8%

98.7%

0.7%

97.7%

0.7%

97.0%

1.3%

95.1%

2.8%

91.0%

1.1%

90.1%

18.6%

88.0%

3.2%

Any 2 losses

23.7%

35.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

96.8%

<0.1%

96.2%

<0.1%

95.2%

<0.1%

90.0%

0.4%

80.8%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

57.1%

0.1%

53.6%

0.3%

51.6%

<0.1%

51.2%

0.2%

48.2%

0.3%

47.5%

0.2%

45.3%

0.2%

45.2%

<0.1%

44.2%

<0.1%

38.7%

0.1%

38.0%

0.4%

37.0%

0.3%

33.5%

0.4%

32.0%

0.3%

31.9%

0.6%

29.8%

0.5%

29.5%

0.2%

28.9%

0.4%

27.9%

2.9%

27.8%

2.7%

27.3%

1.7%

26.4%

1.7%

25.9%

0.3%

25.1%

4.3%

24.2%

0.7%

19.2%

1.2%

16.8%

6.8%

11.8%

7.9%

Any 3 losses

14.3%

1.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

41.2%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

29.3%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

26.7%

<0.1%

25.4%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

24.3%

<0.1%

22.6%

<0.1%

20.7%

0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

16.9%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.7%

0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

2.8%

<0.1%

1.3%

0.2%

0.7%

0.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com