KansasJayhawks

2-1 T3rd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

17.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsFresno StateFRES	W31-7
1	8/29	vsWagnerWAG	W46-7
2	9/06	@MissouriMIZ	L31-42
4	9/20	vsWest VirginiaWVU	Win prob:76%
5	9/27	vsCincinnatiCIN	Win prob:72%
6	10/04	@UCFUCF	Win prob:51%
7	10/11	@Texas TechTTU	Win prob:39%
9	10/25	vsKansas StateKSU	Win prob:51%
10	11/01	vsOklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:94%
11	11/08	@ArizonaARIZ	Win prob:65%
13	11/22	@Iowa StateISU	Win prob:41%
14	11/28	vsUtahUTAH	Win prob:54%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.7%	100.0%
8-1	5.4%	97.9%
7-2	15.8%	61.9%
6-3	26.6%	5.4%
5-4	26.6%	0%
4-5	16.9%	0%
3-6	6.4%	0%
2-7	1.5%	0%
1-8	0.2%	0%
0-9	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

30.5%

25.5%

17.7%

14.8%

11.6%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
North CarolinaUNC@UCFUCF	17.2% (-0.0%)	17.2% (+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@KansasKU	6.8% (-10.4%)	20.5% (+3.3%)
TulsaTLSA@Oklahoma StateOKST	17.0% (-0.2%)	17.3% (+0.1%)
SMUSMU@TCUTCU	17.2% (-0.0%)	17.2% (+0.0%)
Texas TechTTU@UtahUTAH	17.1% (-0.1%)	17.3% (+0.1%)
BYUBYU@East CarolinaECU	17.2% (-0.0%)	17.2% (+0.0%)
Arizona StateASU@BaylorBAY	16.9% (-0.3%)	17.6% (+0.4%)
WyomingWYO@ColoradoCOLO	17.2% (-0.0%)	17.2% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

North Carolina

Kansas

Tulsa

SMU

Texas Tech

East Carolina

Arizona State

Wyoming

CCG: 30.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Kansas

CCG: 20.5% • Scenario: 75.9%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.7%

Any 1 loss

97.9%

5.4%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.3%

0.3%

98.6%

0.4%

98.5%

0.8%

97.8%

1.2%

97.6%

0.7%

97.5%

0.6%

96.7%

1.1%

Any 2 losses

61.9%

15.8%

90.9%

<0.1%

90.9%

<0.1%

85.5%

<0.1%

81.0%

<0.1%

77.8%

<0.1%

76.9%

0.2%

75.0%

0.1%

74.5%

<0.1%

74.3%

<0.1%

73.9%

0.4%

73.3%

0.1%

73.1%

0.2%

72.4%

0.3%

71.9%

0.2%

70.9%

0.2%

70.6%

0.7%

69.9%

0.7%

69.4%

0.3%

67.3%

0.4%

67.3%

0.6%

67.1%

0.4%

66.8%

0.4%

66.7%

0.3%

66.4%

0.4%

65.6%

<0.1%

64.4%

1.1%

62.6%

0.3%

61.4%

0.6%

60.7%

1.1%

58.3%

0.6%

57.6%

0.4%

57.2%

1.0%

55.9%

1.0%

52.5%

1.7%

52.5%

1.0%

49.9%

0.9%

Any 3 losses

5.5%

26.5%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

26.7%

<0.1%

23.1%

<0.1%

20.5%

<0.1%

19.1%

<0.1%

18.8%

<0.1%

18.2%

<0.1%

16.9%

<0.1%

16.3%

<0.1%

13.5%

0.2%

12.3%

<0.1%

12.0%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.8%

0.1%

10.6%

<0.1%

10.5%

0.4%

10.2%

<0.1%

9.5%

0.4%

9.4%

0.6%

9.4%

0.1%

9.3%

0.1%

9.2%

0.1%

9.0%

0.2%

8.9%

0.4%

8.6%

0.3%

8.4%

0.1%

8.3%

0.1%

8.0%

<0.1%

8.0%

<0.1%

7.9%

<0.1%

7.8%

<0.1%

7.7%

0.3%

7.6%

0.6%

7.5%

0.1%

7.5%

0.2%

7.2%

0.5%

7.0%

0.2%

7.0%

0.5%

6.9%

0.3%

6.5%

0.3%

6.0%

1.0%

6.0%

0.4%

5.8%

0.6%

5.7%

0.2%

5.6%

1.0%

5.6%

0.5%

5.3%

0.2%

5.2%

0.3%

5.2%

1.6%

5.2%

0.3%

5.1%

<0.1%

4.9%

0.3%

4.9%

0.9%

4.8%

0.5%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.8%

1.1%

4.6%

0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

4.2%

<0.1%

4.2%

0.5%

4.1%

0.2%

4.1%

1.0%

3.9%

0.7%

3.9%

0.3%

3.8%

0.2%

3.7%

<0.1%

3.6%

0.4%

3.5%

0.4%

3.5%

0.3%

2.8%

0.4%

2.7%

<0.1%

2.6%

1.4%

2.4%

1.6%

2.4%

0.9%

2.3%

0.2%

2.0%

1.0%

1.4%

0.4%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com