Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-14
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Iowa StateISU | 1-0 | 4-0 | 22.0% | |
| T1 |  HoustonHOU | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2.4% | |
| T3 |  TCUTCU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 33.8% | |
| T3 |  Arizona StateASU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 29.7% | |
| T3 |  BYUBYU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 21.6% | |
| T3 |  KansasKU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 17.2% | |
| T3 |  Texas TechTTU | 0-0 | 3-0 | 16.8% | |
| T3 |  UtahUTAH | 0-0 | 3-0 | 15.6% | |
| T3 |  BaylorBAY | 0-0 | 2-1 | 12.2% | |
| T3 |  Kansas StateKSU | 0-1 | 1-3 | 10.8% | |
| T3 |  ColoradoCOLO | 0-1 | 1-2 | 7.6% | |
| T3 |  UCFUCF | 0-0 | 2-0 | 5.6% | |
| T3 |  CincinnatiCIN | 0-0 | 2-1 | 3.1% | |
| T3 |  ArizonaARIZ | 0-0 | 3-0 | 0.9% | |
| T3 |  West VirginiaWVU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0.7% | |
| T3 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-0 | 1-1 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 33.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 33.5% (-0.2%) | 33.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 36.5% (+2.7%) | 32.9% (-0.9%) | |
| 34.0% (+0.2%) | 33.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 33.4% (-0.4%) | 34.0% (+0.3%) | |
| 33.6% (-0.1%) | 33.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 33.7% (-0.1%) | 33.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 33.2% (-0.5%) | 34.5% (+0.7%) | |
| 33.3% (-0.5%) | 33.8% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
North CarolinaWest Virginia
TulsaTCUUtah
East CarolinaArizona State
WyomingCCG: 61.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
West VirginiaCCG: 36.5% • Scenario: 24.1%
Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCUTCU | 100% | 99.5% | 77.5% | 17.5% | <0.1% | 33.8% |
| Arizona StateASU | 100% | 99.4% | 77.5% | 15.0% | <0.1% | 29.7% |
| Iowa StateISU | 100% | 99.4% | 77.1% | 11.4% | - | 22.0% |
| BYUBYU | 100% | 99.0% | 75.2% | 12.8% | <0.1% | 21.6% |
| KansasKU | 100% | 97.9% | 61.9% | 5.4% | - | 17.2% |
| Texas TechTTU | 100% | 98.8% | 69.0% | 6.9% | - | 16.8% |
| UtahUTAH | 100% | 99.5% | 77.8% | 18.1% | <0.1% | 15.6% |
| BaylorBAY | 100% | 98.3% | 66.4% | 6.3% | <0.1% | 12.2% |
| Kansas StateKSU | - | 99.1% | 77.0% | 16.1% | - | 10.8% |
| ColoradoCOLO | - | 100% | 83.7% | 15.6% | <0.1% | 7.6% |
| UCFUCF | 100% | 97.4% | 61.1% | 5.0% | - | 5.6% |
| CincinnatiCIN | 100% | 99.8% | 72.8% | 9.0% | - | 3.1% |
| HoustonHOU | 100% | 98.3% | 67.3% | 5.7% | - | 2.4% |
| ArizonaARIZ | 100% | 97.7% | 72.7% | 8.8% | - | 0.9% |
| West VirginiaWVU | 100% | 100% | 89.2% | 23.4% | <0.1% | 0.7% |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | - | - | - | 15.0% | - | - |
Data from 2025-09-14
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCUTCU(0-0) | 1.7% | 9.8% | 22.3% | 28.4% | 22.5% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| Arizona StateASU(0-0) | 1.4% | 8.2% | 20.4% | 28.5% | 23.8% | 12.6% | 4.2% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.8 |
| Iowa StateISU(1-0) | 0.7% | 5.2% | 16.8% | 28.3% | 27.5% | 15.6% | 5.0% | 0.9% | <0.1% | - | 5.5 |
| KansasKU(0-0) | 0.7% | 5.4% | 15.8% | 26.6% | 26.6% | 16.9% | 6.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.4 |
| BYUBYU(0-0) | 0.8% | 5.5% | 15.9% | 26.1% | 25.8% | 16.9% | 7.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.4 |
| Texas TechTTU(0-0) | 0.6% | 4.5% | 14.5% | 26.0% | 27.2% | 18.0% | 7.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.3 |
| BaylorBAY(0-0) | 0.3% | 3.1% | 11.2% | 22.9% | 28.0% | 21.3% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| UtahUTAH(0-0) | 0.4% | 3.0% | 10.8% | 20.9% | 26.6% | 21.9% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| Kansas StateKSU(0-1) | - | 1.3% | 8.0% | 20.7% | 28.9% | 24.4% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| UCFUCF(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.2% | 5.8% | 16.4% | 26.8% | 27.2% | 16.1% | 5.4% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| ColoradoCOLO(0-1) | - | 0.7% | 5.2% | 16.2% | 27.4% | 27.0% | 16.3% | 6.0% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| HoustonHOU(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 9.6% | 22.4% | 31.3% | 23.6% | 9.1% | 1.3% | - | 4.0 |
| CincinnatiCIN(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 9.3% | 20.5% | 28.3% | 23.7% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 3.9 |
| ArizonaARIZ(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 3.7% | 12.2% | 23.6% | 29.9% | 21.5% | 7.7% | 0.8% | 3.2 |
| West VirginiaWVU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 6.5% | 16.2% | 27.0% | 27.8% | 16.3% | 4.2% | 2.6 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 7.3% | 22.8% | 39.3% | 28.8% | 1.1 |
Data from 2025-09-14