Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L24-38 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W48-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:43% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:87% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:47% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:26% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:62% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:50% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:61% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.1% | 98.3% |
| 7-2 | 11.2% | 66.4% |
| 6-3 | 22.9% | 6.3% |
| 5-4 | 28.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 21.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 9.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 12.6% (+0.3%) | 12.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 13.0% (+0.7%) | 12.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 12.5% (+0.2%) | 12.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.3% (+0.0%) | 12.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.8% (-0.5%) | 12.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 12.3% (+0.0%) | 12.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.5% (-6.7%) | 21.2% (+8.9%) | |
| 12.2% (-0.0%) | 12.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
North Carolina
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
SMU
Texas Tech
East CarolinaBaylor
WyomingCCG: 46.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BaylorCCG: 21.2% • Scenario: 43.0%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
98.3%
3.1%
100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
99.7%
0.3%
99.2%
0.2%
99.0%
0.4%
98.6%
0.5%
98.5%
0.2%
97.9%
0.3%
97.1%
1.0%Any 2 losses
66.4%
11.1%96.2%
<0.1%87.4%
<0.1%84.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%79.6%
0.1%79.4%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.5%
<0.1%77.5%
0.1%76.2%
0.3%75.1%
0.2%75.1%
0.2%74.6%
0.2%74.0%
<0.1%73.9%
0.1%73.8%
0.3%72.5%
0.3%72.3%
<0.1%71.8%
0.3%71.2%
0.7%70.8%
0.2%70.6%
0.1%69.7%
0.3%69.6%
0.1%68.9%
0.4%68.1%
0.2%68.0%
0.3%66.3%
0.8%65.2%
0.4%64.6%
0.6%64.1%
0.5%63.0%
1.0%60.3%
0.5%59.8%
1.1%53.5%
1.3%Any 3 losses
6.3%
22.9%30.0%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.4%
0.1%20.9%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.2%
0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%14.9%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.0%
0.1%12.6%
0.1%12.6%
0.2%12.5%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.2%12.2%
<0.1%12.2%
0.2%11.7%
0.3%11.5%
0.3%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.4%9.8%
0.2%9.8%
<0.1%9.8%
0.2%9.3%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.0%
0.2%9.0%
<0.1%8.2%
0.2%8.2%
0.2%8.0%
0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
0.2%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
0.2%7.6%
0.6%7.5%
0.3%7.4%
0.8%7.2%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.0%
0.5%7.0%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.2%6.6%
0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.6%
0.8%6.5%
0.4%6.4%
0.6%6.0%
0.3%5.9%
0.3%5.9%
0.6%5.8%
0.3%5.3%
0.4%5.1%
1.0%5.0%
0.3%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
1.2%4.7%
0.4%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
0.9%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.8%4.1%
0.3%3.7%
0.4%3.6%
0.3%3.5%
0.7%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
0.5%3.2%
1.6%3.2%
1.1%2.8%
1.3%2.4%
0.3%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14