Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W20-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W68-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W59-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L27-30 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:89% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:68% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:59% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:89% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:35% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:87% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:5% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:56% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.3% | 83.1% |
| 7-2 | 6.4% | 5.2% |
| 6-3 | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 34.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 24.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 9.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (-0.2%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.1%) | 0.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Penn State
Iowa
Illinois
Washington
UCLA
MinnesotaCCG: 2.6% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Penn StateIowaCCG: 0.9% • Scenario: 25.7%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
83.1%
0.3%Any 1 loss
5.2%
6.4%
12.1%
0.1%10.9%
0.2%9.9%
0.2%
8.3%
<0.1%
7.6%
0.6%
5.9%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.3%
5.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21