Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W39-7 | |
| 2 | 9/05 | W20-9 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-17 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W27-10 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:46% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:32% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:69% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:14% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:33% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:21% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:18% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:67% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.3% | 41.4% |
| 7-2 | 1.9% | 1.5% |
| 6-3 | 8.8% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 21.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 31.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 24.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 9.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Penn State
Iowa
Illinois
Washington
Northwestern
RutgersCCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 0.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IllinoisCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 34.0%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
41.7%
0.2%70.6%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%
42.9%
<0.1%
42.3%
<0.1%
41.5%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%
33.3%
<0.1%
31.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
2.6%
1.1%11.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.3%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21