Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W55-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L16-18 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L10-20 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L7-26 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:28% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:30% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:81% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:10% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:56% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:14% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:36% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 86.7% |
| 6-2 | 0.4% | 36.3% |
| 5-3 | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 14.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 32.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 15.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 2.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Utah State
Arkansas
Alabama
South Carolina
LSU
Auburn
TennesseeCCG: 4.8% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LSUTennesseeCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 18.1%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
84.6%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
36.1%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
75.0%
<0.1%
63.6%
<0.1%
44.1%
<0.1%
41.7%
0.1%36.0%
<0.1%
30.5%
0.1%
22.9%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21