Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
36.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L17-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W73-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:30% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:88% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:75% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:81% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:81% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 5.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 23.9% | 90.0% |
| 6-2 | 34.0% | 28.5% |
| 5-3 | 24.0% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 9.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 37.1% (+0.2%) | 36.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 36.9% (-0.0%) | 36.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 65.3% (+28.4%) | 24.9% (-11.9%) | |
| 34.5% (-2.4%) | 36.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 35.2% (-1.7%) | 37.6% (+0.7%) | |
| 42.4% (+5.5%) | 35.4% (-1.5%) | |
| 37.9% (+1.1%) | 36.3% (-0.5%) | |
| 36.9% (+0.1%) | 36.5% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Utah StateAlabama
Massachusetts
Mississippi StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 65.3% • Scenario: 29.6%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
5.0%Any 1 loss
90.3%
22.1%
100.0%
0.6%
98.3%
0.7%
97.3%
1.7%
97.2%
1.6%
97.1%
1.2%
96.4%
2.4%
96.3%
1.1%
95.7%
1.1%
84.5%
11.8%Any 2 losses
32.8%
32.8%98.0%
0.1%97.9%
0.2%97.6%
<0.1%96.6%
0.2%96.5%
0.1%96.0%
0.2%94.2%
0.1%84.0%
1.3%50.3%
0.1%48.9%
0.4%47.0%
0.2%43.7%
0.4%43.4%
0.5%42.9%
0.5%42.8%
0.7%42.5%
0.4%41.4%
0.1%41.1%
0.2%41.0%
0.3%40.5%
0.2%36.3%
0.3%36.2%
0.5%34.4%
0.8%34.1%
0.3%33.3%
0.3%33.0%
0.3%32.9%
0.3%31.3%
0.4%31.2%
0.5%30.8%
3.6%26.7%
1.6%26.5%
2.9%25.2%
5.5%24.9%
3.8%22.2%
2.7%14.9%
2.6%Any 3 losses
7.3%
15.8%56.8%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%51.4%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%30.3%
0.4%30.2%
<0.1%28.0%
0.6%26.8%
0.4%26.7%
<0.1%26.4%
0.5%24.2%
0.2%22.0%
0.3%14.9%
0.3%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.2%
0.2%1.9%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.6%
0.4%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.6%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
0.5%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.5%1.0%
0.7%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.8%0.7%
0.8%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
1.0%0.7%
1.7%0.7%
0.9%0.7%
0.6%0.6%
1.2%0.6%
0.7%0.6%
0.9%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21