Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W38-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W42-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-15 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L17-24 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:34% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:15% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:48% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:43% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:74% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:47% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:23% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 97.1% |
| 6-2 | 1.3% | 20.2% |
| 5-3 | 7.0% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 20.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 26.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 11.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.6%) | 0.1% (-0.3%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Utah State
Notre Dame
Alabama
Massachusetts
Kentucky
Ole MissAuburnCCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AuburnCCG: 0.9% • Scenario: 33.9%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.6%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
21.0%
1.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
42.7%
0.1%
33.7%
<0.1%
28.4%
0.1%
26.6%
0.1%23.8%
<0.1%19.5%
0.2%
8.6%
0.4%Any 2 losses
9.1%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21