Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W73-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W59-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W33-17 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L32-34 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:61% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:14% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:65% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:95% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:75% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:25% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 7.0% | 51.2% |
| 7-2 | 31.2% | 1.2% |
| 6-3 | 38.7% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 19.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2% (+0.2%) | 4.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.0% (+2.1%) | 3.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.0% (+0.1%) | 3.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.0%) | 6.9% (+3.0%) | |
| 4.3% (+0.4%) | 3.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.0%) | 4.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.1% (+0.1%) | 3.9% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UL Monroe
Minnesota
Illinois
Wisconsin
Michigan StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MinnesotaCCG: 6.0% • Scenario: 6.2%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
49.7%
1.0%Any 1 loss
30.1%
10.5%
51.5%
6.0%
4.8%
<0.1%
4.0%
0.5%
3.6%
<0.1%
0.8%
0.6%
0.7%
2.9%
0.7%
0.3%Any 2 losses
1.2%
26.8%5.3%
0.3%4.0%
3.1%2.1%
0.2%1.6%
2.1%1.4%
3.8%0.6%
17.3%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28