Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-19

Big TenConference Standings

T1IndianaIU4-07-081.9%
T1Ohio StOSU4-07-078.7%
T3OregonORE3-16-122.4%
T3MichiganMICH3-15-28.5%
T3USCUSC3-15-24.6%
T3IowaIOWA3-15-23.6%
T3MinnesotaMINN3-15-2<0.1%
T3NorthwesternNU3-15-2<0.1%
T3UCLAUCLA3-13-4<0.1%
T10WashingtonWASH2-25-20.2%
T10IllinoisILL2-25-2<0.1%
T10NebraskaNEB2-25-2<0.1%
13MarylandMD1-34-3-
T14Michigan StMSU0-43-4-
T14Penn StPSU0-43-4-
T14PurduePUR0-42-5-
T14RutgersRUTG0-43-4-
T14WisconsinWIS0-42-5-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

163.3%
IndianaIU
vs
OSUOhio St
211.0%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
39.6%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
43.7%
IndianaIU
vs
MICHMichigan
52.4%
MichiganMICH
vs
OSUOhio St
61.9%
IndianaIU
vs
USCUSC
71.9%
IndianaIU
vs
IOWAIowa
81.7%
Ohio StOSU
vs
USCUSC
91.5%
MichiganMICH
vs
OREOregon
101.4%
IowaIOWA
vs
OSUOhio St
110.7%
MichiganMICH
vs
USCUSC
120.2%
IowaIOWA
vs
MICHMichigan
130.1%
OregonORE
vs
USCUSC
140.1%
Ohio StOSU
vs
WASHWashington
15<0.1%
MinnesotaMINN
vs
OSUOhio St

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 81.9%
Game
IndianaCCG OddsAway
IndianaCCG OddsHome
MinnesotaMINN@IowaIOWA
81.9%
(+0.0%)		81.9%
(+0.0%)
WisconsinWIS@OregonORE
88.0%
(+6.1%)		81.7%
(-0.2%)
RutgersRUTG@PurduePUR
81.8%
(-0.1%)		82.2%
(+0.3%)
MichiganMICH@Michigan StMSU
81.4%
(-0.5%)		87.1%
(+5.2%)
NorthwesternNU@NebraskaNEB
81.8%
(-0.1%)		81.9%
(+0.0%)
UCLAUCLA@IndianaIU
36.5%
(-45.3%)		83.1%
(+1.2%)
IllinoisILL@WashingtonWASH
83.1%
(+1.2%)		81.4%
(-0.5%)

Best Winner Combination for Indiana

MinnesotaMinnesotaWisconsinWisconsinPurduePurdueMichigan StMichigan State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Indiana

IndianaIndiana

CCG: 83.1% • Scenario: 97.5%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-2Overall
IndianaIU100%81.3%10.5%81.9%
Ohio StOSU100%71.7%3.3%78.7%
OregonORE-55.6%8.1%22.4%
MichiganMICH-64.4%0.7%8.5%
USCUSC-28.9%2.0%4.6%
IowaIOWA-54.9%2.5%3.6%
WashingtonWASH--2.1%0.2%
MinnesotaMINN-41.5%0.3%<0.1%
IllinoisILL--1.1%<0.1%
NorthwesternNU-52.0%2.7%<0.1%
NebraskaNEB--2.6%<0.1%
UCLAUCLA-100%28.6%<0.1%
MarylandMD----
Michigan StMSU----
Penn StPSU----
PurduePUR----
RutgersRUTG----
WisconsinWIS----

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
Ohio StOSU(4-0)48.9%41.0%9.5%0.6%<0.1%0.0%----8.4
IndianaIU(4-0)38.5%52.3%8.8%0.5%<0.1%0.0%----8.3
OregonORE(3-1)-33.9%43.5%19.1%3.2%0.2%0.0%---7.1
MichiganMICH(3-1)-12.7%51.3%29.8%5.9%0.4%<0.1%---6.7
USCUSC(3-1)-12.8%42.8%34.0%9.5%0.9%<0.1%---6.6
IowaIOWA(3-1)-5.3%26.7%42.5%22.3%3.1%0.1%---6.1
WashingtonWASH(2-2)--7.7%38.9%37.4%13.9%2.1%<0.1%--5.4
MinnesotaMINN(3-1)-0.2%4.8%32.3%42.0%18.4%2.4%---5.2
IllinoisILL(2-2)--4.3%21.7%35.9%27.1%9.7%1.3%--4.8
NebraskaNEB(2-2)--0.9%10.1%33.4%38.8%15.1%1.7%--4.4
NorthwesternNU(3-1)-<0.1%0.8%7.1%26.2%42.6%23.2%---4.2
Penn StPSU(0-4)----13.2%43.8%35.0%7.4%0.5%<0.1%3.6
UCLAUCLA(3-1)-0.0%<0.1%0.6%8.6%38.4%52.4%---3.6
MarylandMD(1-3)---0.4%5.7%23.7%39.9%25.9%4.4%-3.0
RutgersRUTG(0-4)----<0.1%1.9%17.7%41.5%31.9%6.9%1.8
WisconsinWIS(0-4)----0.0%0.2%4.2%22.6%44.1%28.9%1.0
Michigan StMSU(0-4)----0.0%<0.1%0.9%8.3%36.4%54.4%0.6
PurduePUR(0-4)----0.0%0.0%0.2%4.2%32.8%62.7%0.4

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com