Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W73-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W59-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W33-17 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L32-34 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W31-13 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L24-34 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:70% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:93% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:69% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:30% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 12.8% | 28.9% |
| 7-2 | 42.8% | 2.0% |
| 6-3 | 34.0% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 9.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5% (-0.1%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.4% (-0.2%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.5% (-0.1%) | 4.7% (+0.2%) | |
| 4.6% (+0.0%) | 4.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.5% (-0.0%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 17.7% (+13.2%) | 4.2% (-0.3%) | |
| 4.9% (+0.3%) | 4.4% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Wisconsin
Michigan State
UCLA
IllinoisCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UCLACCG: 17.7% • Scenario: 2.5%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
28.9%
12.8%Any 1 loss
2.0%
42.8%
5.5%
5.4%4.2%
0.7%
4.1%
1.0%
3.3%
5.8%
1.0%
29.9%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19