Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-24 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W63-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W30-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W24-10 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L13-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-7 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:92% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:96% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:85% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:74% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:23% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 12.7% | 64.4% |
| 7-2 | 51.3% | 0.7% |
| 6-3 | 29.8% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 5.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 8.8% (+0.3%) | 8.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.5% (+4.0%) | 8.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 8.4% (-0.1%) | 8.9% (+0.4%) | |
| 9.3% (+0.7%) | 0.3% (-8.2%) | |
| 8.3% (-0.2%) | 8.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.1% (+1.6%) | 8.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.7% (-0.8%) | 8.8% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Purdue
Nebraska
UCLACCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Michigan
WashingtonCCG: 9.6% • Scenario: 66.3%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
64.4%
12.7%Any 1 loss
2.2%
8.5%
2.4%
4.5%
2.3%
1.1%
2.0%
2.2%1.2%
0.6%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19