Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W47-7 | |
| 4 | 9/19 | W38-28 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L15-20 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W37-0 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W25-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:88% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:34% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:31% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:60% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 5.3% | 54.9% |
| 7-2 | 26.7% | 2.5% |
| 6-3 | 42.5% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 22.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 3.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (-3.3%) | 4.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 4.7% (+1.1%) | 3.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.6% (+0.0%) | 3.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.6% (-0.0%) | 4.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 3.7% (+0.1%) | 3.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.2% (+2.6%) | 3.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.6% (+0.0%) | 3.6% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Wisconsin
Michigan State
UCLA
IllinoisCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IowaCCG: 4.0% • Scenario: 87.9%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
54.9%
5.3%Any 1 loss
2.5%
26.7%
5.2%
3.5%5.1%
0.2%
4.8%
0.7%
2.6%
11.8%
1.3%
10.4%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19