Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W59-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W69-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-7 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W30-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L20-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W56-10 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:97% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:66% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:95% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:70% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 33.9% | 55.6% |
| 7-2 | 43.5% | 8.1% |
| 6-3 | 19.1% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 22.7% (+0.3%) | 22.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.3% (-20.1%) | 23.1% (+0.7%) | |
| 22.5% (+0.1%) | 22.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 22.3% (-0.1%) | 23.8% (+1.4%) | |
| 22.6% (+0.2%) | 22.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 41.8% (+19.4%) | 21.9% (-0.5%) | |
| 22.0% (-0.4%) | 22.5% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Rutgers
Nebraska
UCLA
IllinoisCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OregonCCG: 23.1% • Scenario: 96.8%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
55.6%
33.9%Any 1 loss
8.1%
43.5%
11.2%
8.5%11.0%
1.8%
8.4%
17.4%6.3%
1.2%
5.9%
14.7%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19