Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-19 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-63 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W34-32 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W43-27 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L16-34 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:28% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:64% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:61% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:68% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| 6-3 | 21.7% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 35.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 9.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.2%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Purdue
NorthwesternIllinoisCCG: 20.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IllinoisCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 27.7%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
1.1%
4.3%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19