Western KentuckyHilltoppers
0-2 T1st (0-0) in CUSA
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.0%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Western Kentucky's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
Western Kentucky has a 7.0% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Western Kentucky's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L14-49 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L20-70 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:1% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 10/01 | Win prob:39% | |
| 6 | 10/08 | Win prob:52% | |
| 7 | 10/14 | Win prob:44% | |
| 9 | 10/27 | Win prob:26% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:47% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:42% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.8% | 99.7% |
| 6-2 | 4.2% | 82.7% |
| 5-3 | 12.9% | 20.7% |
| 4-4 | 24.1% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 20.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 8.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 7.0% (+0.0%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.0% (-0.1%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.0% (+0.0%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.1% (+0.1%) | 7.0% (-0.1%) | ||
| 7.1% (+0.1%) | 7.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 7.0% (-0.0%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.0% (-0.0%) | 7.1% (+0.1%) | ||
| 7.0% (-0.0%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.1% (+0.1%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
99.6%
0.7%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.1%99.9%
<0.1%99.6%
<0.1%99.6%
<0.1%98.9%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17