Western KentuckyHilltoppers
0-0 T1st (0-0) in CUSA
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
45.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Western Kentucky's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
Western Kentucky has a 45.4% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Western Kentucky's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:3% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:4% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 10/01 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 10/08 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 10/14 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 10/27 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:70% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:51% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 13.5% | 99.8% |
| 6-2 | 26.1% | 86.0% |
| 5-3 | 28.4% | 23.1% |
| 4-4 | 18.6% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 8.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 45.5% (+0.1%) | 45.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 45.9% (+0.5%) | 45.4% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
99.9%
2.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
1.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
98.4%
9.3%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
1.0%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.7%99.9%
0.7%99.8%
1.0%99.7%
1.5%99.6%
0.9%95.2%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.6%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
87.0%
20.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.5%99.7%
0.7%99.5%
0.9%99.2%
0.1%98.5%
0.3%97.1%
0.2%96.3%
0.2%96.2%
0.3%95.3%
0.3%92.9%
0.3%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.2%
0.3%91.8%
0.4%91.3%
0.6%91.2%
0.3%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.7%
0.5%90.2%
0.4%90.1%
0.4%90.1%
0.3%90.0%
0.7%89.8%
0.5%89.5%
<0.1%89.2%
0.5%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
0.4%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.4%
0.4%85.7%
<0.1%85.6%
0.5%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.0%
0.7%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
0.4%80.5%
0.8%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.4%
0.5%79.3%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%78.3%
0.4%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.5%
0.9%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.8%
0.5%74.8%
1.0%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26