Middle TennesseeBlue Raiders
4-4 T3rd (2-2) in CUSA
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Middle Tennessee's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
Middle Tennessee has a 0.2% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Middle Tennessee's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Middle Tennessee need to do to reach the Conference USA Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Middle Tennessee's Conference USA Championship Game odds at 22.2%.
What is the biggest game this week for Middle Tennessee's Conference USA Championship Game odds?
The biggest swing game for Middle Tennessee's Conference USA Championship Game odds this week isn't even its own: a Sam Houston win would boost them to 0.8%, while a Jacksonville State win would leave them at 0.1%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W38-14 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L26-28 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W27-20 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | L13-23 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | L0-55 | |
| 7 | 10/13 | W33-30 | |
| 8 | 10/20 | W26-23 | |
| 9 | 10/28 | L28-44 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:47% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:2% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:48% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:53% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 0.2% | 22.2% |
| 5-3 | 12.5% | 1.0% |
| 4-4 | 37.2% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 37.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 12.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.0% (-0.2%) | 0.4% (+0.2%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 0.8% (+0.6%) | 0.1% (-0.1%) | ||
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.2%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateMiddle Tennessee
New Mexico State
Missouri State
Sam HoustonCCG: 1.9% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Middle TennesseeCCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 47.2%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG ProbabilityData from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02