MTSU

Middle TennesseeBlue Raiders

1-1 T1st (0-0) in CUSA

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

3.4%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Middle Tennessee's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?

Middle Tennessee has a 3.4% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Middle Tennessee's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

MTSUSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsMurray StateMUR
W38-14
29/12
@MarshallMRSH
L26-28
39/19
vsNevadaNEV
Win prob:26%
49/26
@Jacksonville StJXST
Win prob:23%
510/03
@KansasKU
Win prob:6%
710/13
vsDelawareDEL
Win prob:22%
810/20
@Florida IntlFIU
Win prob:24%
910/28
vsKennesawKENN
Win prob:43%
1011/07
vsWKUWKU
Win prob:53%
1111/14
@LibertyLIB
Win prob:23%
1211/21
@Sam Houston StSHSU
Win prob:39%
1311/28
vsNew Mexico StNMSU
Win prob:50%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

MTSURecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.0%
100.0%
7-1
0.2%
99.7%
6-2
1.8%
84.7%
5-3
7.4%
22.1%
4-4
18.6%
0.1%
3-5
28.9%
0%
2-6
26.8%
0%
1-7
13.5%
0%
0-8
2.9%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible MTSU CCG Opponents

if MTSU makes the CCG

DELDelaware
45.6%
JXSTJacksonville St
12.1%
LIBLiberty
11.2%
FIUFlorida Intl
9.8%
KENNKennesaw
7.4%
MOSTMissouri St
5.6%
NMSUNew Mexico St
3.6%
WKUWKU
2.7%
SHSUSam Houston St
2.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

MTSUThis Week's Impact

Game
MTSUCCG OddsAway Wins
MTSUCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
Coastal CarCCU@DelawareDEL
3.4%
(-0.0%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)
Ball StBALL@LibertyLIB
3.4%
(-0.0%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)
WKUWKU@IndianaIU
3.4%
(+0.1%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)
Florida IntlFIU@FL AtlanticFAU
3.4%
(-0.0%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Missouri StMOST
3.4%
(-0.0%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)
Ga SouthernGASO@Jacksonville StJXST
3.4%
(-0.0%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)
NevadaNEV@MTSUMTSU
3.4%
(+0.0%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)
NichollsNICH@Sam Houston StSHSU
3.4%
(+0.0%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)
KennesawKENN@TennesseeTENN
3.2%
(-0.1%)		3.4%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

MTSULoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
MTSU CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
Kansas
100.0%
<0.1%
Delaware
100.0%
<0.1%
Liberty
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida Intl
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Nevada
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville St
100.0%
<0.1%
Sam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Kennesaw
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
99.8%
<0.1%
KansasNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
KansasKennesaw
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
KansasWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
KansasLiberty
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareKansas
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKansas
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
KansasSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
KansasNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico StSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertySam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKansas
99.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNevada
95.2%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StSam Houston St
88.9%
<0.1%
KennesawLiberty
88.9%
<0.1%
Florida IntlWKU
83.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville St
81.3%
<0.1%
DelawareNew Mexico St
80.0%
<0.1%
LibertyWKU
80.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville St
80.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLiberty
80.0%
<0.1%
KennesawNew Mexico St
80.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida Intl
75.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLiberty
75.0%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesaw
71.4%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesaw
70.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLiberty
70.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesaw
50.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
84.1%
0.7%
KansasNevadaSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKansasNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKansasNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
KansasNevadaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
KansasNevadaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
KansasKennesawNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawNevadaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNevadaWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaNew Mexico StSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawNevadaSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
KansasLibertyNevada
99.4%
<0.1%
DelawareKansasNevada
99.3%
<0.1%
KansasKennesawWKU
97.5%
<0.1%
KansasKennesawSam Houston St
96.4%
<0.1%
KansasNew Mexico StWKU
95.2%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNevadaWKU
95.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNevadaNew Mexico St
95.0%
<0.1%
LibertyNevadaWKU
95.0%
<0.1%
KansasSam Houston StWKU
94.7%
<0.1%
LibertyNevadaSam Houston St
94.7%
<0.1%
KansasNew Mexico StSam Houston St
94.1%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKansasSam Houston St
93.5%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKansasWKU
92.2%
<0.1%
KansasLibertyWKU
92.1%
<0.1%
KansasKennesawNew Mexico St
91.9%
<0.1%
DelawareKansasWKU
91.9%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKansasSam Houston St
91.6%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKansasKennesaw
91.2%
<0.1%
KansasLibertyNew Mexico St
91.2%
<0.1%
DelawareKansasSam Houston St
90.8%
<0.1%
KansasLibertySam Houston St
90.6%
<0.1%
NevadaNew Mexico StWKU
90.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKansasWKU
89.9%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKansasKennesaw
89.7%
<0.1%
LibertyNevadaNew Mexico St
89.5%
<0.1%
DelawareKansasNew Mexico St
89.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNevadaSam Houston St
88.2%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKansasLiberty
88.1%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKansasNew Mexico St
87.6%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNevadaSam Houston St
87.5%
<0.1%
KansasKennesawLiberty
87.4%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKansasNew Mexico St
86.4%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawNevada
85.7%
<0.1%
KennesawNevadaNew Mexico St
85.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StNevada
84.7%
<0.1%
DelawareNevadaWKU
84.6%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StKansas
84.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico StSam Houston StWKU
83.3%
<0.1%
DelawareNevadaSam Houston St
83.3%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKansasLiberty
83.3%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNevadaNew Mexico St
82.6%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlKansas
82.6%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertyNevada
82.5%
<0.1%
DelawareNevadaNew Mexico St
80.8%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertyNevada
80.0%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawNevada
80.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlNevada
78.3%
<0.1%
KennesawLibertyNevada
78.3%
<0.1%
DelawareKansasKennesaw
76.5%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLibertyNevada
74.6%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StKansas
74.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawNevada
73.7%
<0.1%
LibertyNew Mexico StWKU
71.4%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StNevada
69.8%
<0.1%
DelawareKansasLiberty
69.8%
<0.1%
NevadaSam Houston StWKU
66.7%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawNew Mexico St
50.0%
<0.1%
KennesawSam Houston StWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawSam Houston St
46.7%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawNew Mexico St
42.9%
<0.1%
KennesawLibertySam Houston St
38.5%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawLiberty
38.1%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StNew Mexico St
37.9%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StSam Houston StWKU
36.4%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StNew Mexico St
33.3%
<0.1%
KennesawNew Mexico StSam Houston St
33.3%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNew Mexico StWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StSam Houston St
31.6%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlKennesaw
30.4%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertySam Houston St
30.2%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertyNew Mexico St
29.4%
<0.1%
LibertySam Houston StWKU
28.6%
<0.1%
KennesawLibertyWKU
27.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLibertySam Houston St
25.6%
<0.1%
LibertyNew Mexico StSam Houston St
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSam Houston StWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertyNew Mexico St
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNew Mexico StSam Houston St
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLibertyWKU
23.8%
<0.1%
DelawareNew Mexico StWKU
22.2%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawSam Houston St
22.2%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawLiberty
21.9%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StLiberty
21.1%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlWKU
21.1%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StKennesaw
20.0%
<0.1%
DelawareSam Houston StWKU
20.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawWKU
20.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNew Mexico StWKU
20.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StSam Houston St
17.9%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlLiberty
16.9%
<0.1%
KennesawLibertyNew Mexico St
16.7%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlSam Houston St
16.7%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawWKU
16.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawSam Houston St
16.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawNew Mexico St
16.7%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawLiberty
16.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StWKU
15.8%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlNew Mexico St
15.4%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertySam Houston St
15.4%
<0.1%
DelawareNew Mexico StSam Houston St
14.3%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlJacksonville St
14.1%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StKennesaw
13.2%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StLiberty
12.9%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNew Mexico StSam Houston St
12.5%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertyWKU
11.8%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLibertyNew Mexico St
9.5%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertyWKU
8.7%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

MTSUCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com