Jacksonville StateGamecocks
6-2 T1st (4-0) in CUSA
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
90.5%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Jacksonville State's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
Jacksonville State has a 90.5% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Jacksonville State's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Jacksonville State need to do to reach the Conference USA Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Jacksonville State's Conference USA Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 100%.
What is the biggest game this week for Jacksonville State's Conference USA Championship Game odds?
Jacksonville State's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Sam Houston would put its Conference USA Championship Game odds at 92.4%, while a loss would drop them to 74.0%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/29 | L7-33 | |
| 1 | 9/05 | W49-7 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L27-29 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W31-27 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W23-13 | |
| 6 | 10/07 | W27-26 | |
| 7 | 10/13 | W27-24 | |
| 9 | 10/28 | W24-0 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:65% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:49% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 23.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 44.5% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 26.2% | 80.5% |
| 5-3 | 5.5% | 26.3% |
| 4-4 | 0.4% | 1.0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 85.3% (-5.2%) | 96.0% (+5.5%) | ||
| 89.9% (-0.6%) | 91.1% (+0.6%) | ||
| 89.7% (-0.8%) | 90.9% (+0.4%) | ||
| 74.0% (-16.5%) | 92.4% (+1.9%) | ||
| 90.5% (-0.0%) | 91.0% (+0.4%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw State
Middle Tennessee
Liberty
Florida InternationalJacksonville StateCCG: 98.6% • Scenario: 12.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateJacksonville StateCCG: 97.3% • Scenario: 43.2%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02