Jacksonville StateGamecocks

1-2 T1st (0-0) in CUSA

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

28.2%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Jacksonville State's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?

Jacksonville State has a 28.2% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Jacksonville State's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/29	@North Dakota StateNDSU	L7-33
1	9/05	vsEastern KentuckyEKU	W49-7
2	9/12	@OhioOHIO	L27-29
3	9/19	vsGeorgia SouthernGASO	Win prob:54%
4	9/26	vsMiddle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:77%
6	10/07	@Kennesaw StateKENN	Win prob:47%
7	10/13	vsFlorida InternationalFIU	Win prob:59%
9	10/28	@New Mexico StateNMSU	Win prob:55%
10	11/07	vsSam HoustonSHSU	Win prob:75%
11	11/14	@Western KentuckyWKU	Win prob:58%
12	11/21	vsMissouri StateMOST	Win prob:67%
13	11/28	@DelawareDEL	Win prob:26%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.9%	100.0%
7-1	6.5%	99.4%
6-2	18.9%	80.4%
5-3	28.7%	19.5%
4-4	25.8%	0.1%
3-5	14.0%	0%
2-6	4.4%	0%
1-7	0.8%	0%
0-8	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

DelawareDEL

52.4%

LibertyLIB

14.7%

Florida InternationalFIU

9.8%

8.2%

4.5%

3.8%

2.8%

2.2%

1.5%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19
	Coastal CarolinaCCU@DelawareDEL	28.1% (-0.1%)	28.2% (+0.0%)
	Ball StateBALL@LibertyLIB	28.2% (+0.0%)	28.1% (-0.0%)
	Western KentuckyWKU@IndianaIU	28.5% (+0.4%)	28.2% (+0.0%)
	Florida InternationalFIU@Florida AtlanticFAU	28.3% (+0.1%)	28.1% (-0.1%)
	MarshallMRSH@Missouri StateMOST	28.2% (+0.1%)	28.1% (-0.0%)
	Georgia SouthernGASO@Jacksonville StateJXST	28.2% (+0.1%)	28.1% (-0.1%)
	NevadaNEV@Middle TennesseeMTSU	28.2% (+0.0%)	28.1% (-0.1%)
	NichollsNICH@Sam HoustonSHSU	28.2% (+0.1%)	28.1% (-0.0%)
	Kennesaw StateKENN@TennesseeTENN	28.2% (+0.0%)	28.2% (+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.5%

Any 1 loss

99.5%

3.9%

100.0%

0.4%

100.0%

0.1%

99.9%

0.4%

99.9%

0.2%

99.9%

0.4%

99.8%

0.5%

99.8%

0.2%

99.7%

0.3%

98.8%

1.4%

Any 2 losses

84.7%

13.2%

99.9%

0.1%

99.9%

0.3%

99.9%

0.3%

99.9%

0.4%

99.9%

0.2%

99.7%

0.1%

99.7%

0.3%

98.6%

1.2%

93.9%

0.1%

92.6%

0.1%

92.2%

0.2%

91.8%

<0.1%

91.4%

0.3%

90.8%

<0.1%

90.5%

0.1%

90.5%

<0.1%

90.4%

0.1%

90.1%

0.2%

89.6%

0.2%

89.2%

0.4%

88.4%

0.1%

87.9%

0.2%

87.7%

0.4%

85.7%

0.3%

85.4%

0.3%

85.2%

0.2%

84.1%

0.1%

82.6%

0.4%

81.2%

0.2%

80.9%

0.4%

80.5%

1.0%

79.6%

0.5%

79.3%

1.1%

76.7%

0.7%

72.3%

1.6%

65.9%

0.9%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com