Jacksonville StateGamecocks
0-0 T1st (0-0) in CUSA
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
26.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Jacksonville State's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
Jacksonville State has a 26.4% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Jacksonville State's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29 | Win prob:44% | ||
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:43% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 10/07 | Win prob:45% | ||
| 10/13 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 10/28 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:77% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:40% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 6.0% | 99.6% |
| 6-2 | 17.7% | 81.5% |
| 5-3 | 27.8% | 18.3% |
| 4-4 | 26.3% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 15.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 26.4% (+0.0%) | 26.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 25.0% (-1.4%) | 26.5% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.8%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%99.1%
0.1%Any 2 losses
91.9%
4.0%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.3%
0.1%99.1%
0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.9%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.4%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.4%
0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.6%
0.1%80.4%
0.1%78.7%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.3%
0.2%72.1%
<0.1%68.3%
0.2%Any 3 losses
70.2%
11.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%99.3%
0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.4%
0.3%97.8%
<0.1%97.3%
0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.6%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%89.9%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.4%
<0.1%88.7%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.6%
0.1%86.1%
<0.1%86.0%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%84.6%
0.2%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%84.0%
0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.7%
<0.1%83.5%
0.1%83.5%
0.1%83.1%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%82.2%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.5%
0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
0.1%79.5%
0.2%79.3%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.4%
0.1%76.1%
0.2%75.9%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.2%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.8%
0.1%73.9%
0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
0.3%69.1%
0.2%67.8%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%62.7%
0.3%62.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.5%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.5%
0.1%14.4%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
0.1%13.2%
0.1%12.8%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.2%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.3%8.2%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
48.8%
17.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.7%
0.1%98.6%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.1%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.5%
0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.6%
0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.8%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.5%
0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.8%
<0.1%83.7%
<0.1%83.6%
<0.1%83.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.1%
0.2%83.0%
0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
0.2%82.1%
<0.1%82.1%
0.1%81.7%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.1%
0.1%79.1%
0.3%79.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.9%
<0.1%78.7%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.9%
0.2%77.3%
0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.6%
<0.1%75.9%
0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
0.3%73.9%
0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.5%
0.1%73.3%
0.2%72.8%
0.2%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
0.2%72.2%
0.4%71.4%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%31.7%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.5%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.9%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.8%
0.1%24.4%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.8%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.8%
0.2%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
0.1%19.6%
0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.8%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
0.3%15.9%
<0.1%15.9%
0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
0.2%15.2%
0.2%15.0%
0.1%15.0%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.4%
0.2%14.3%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.9%
0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
0.3%13.2%
0.2%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.9%
0.1%11.8%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
0.1%10.1%
<0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
<0.1%9.5%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26