Missouri StateBears
1-1 T1st (0-0) in CUSA
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.0%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Missouri State's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
Missouri State has a 11.0% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Missouri State's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L0-50 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W48-14 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:65% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:1% | |
| 6 | 10/08 | Win prob:48% | |
| 7 | 10/14 | Win prob:54% | |
| 8 | 10/20 | Win prob:19% | |
| 9 | 10/27 | Win prob:67% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:34% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:62% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:33% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:49% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.4% | 99.8% |
| 6-2 | 6.9% | 83.0% |
| 5-3 | 18.1% | 20.9% |
| 4-4 | 28.0% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 26.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 14.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 4.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 11.0% (+0.0%) | 11.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 11.0% (+0.0%) | 11.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 10.8% (-0.2%) | 11.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.0% (+0.0%) | 11.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 11.0% (+0.0%) | 11.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 11.0% (-0.0%) | 11.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.0% (-0.0%) | 11.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.0% (+0.1%) | 11.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 11.0% (+0.0%) | 11.0% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
99.4%
0.9%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.1%99.8%
<0.1%99.7%
0.3%99.7%
0.1%99.6%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
83.7%
4.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.2%99.3%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.2%
<0.1%93.7%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.8%
0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.8%
<0.1%91.4%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.8%
0.1%90.4%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.6%
0.3%88.9%
<0.1%88.8%
0.1%88.3%
0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.8%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%85.3%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.2%
0.3%82.9%
<0.1%82.5%
0.1%81.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
0.1%79.1%
0.3%78.0%
0.6%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.5%
0.6%71.7%
0.3%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.2%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17