Missouri StateBears
0-0 T1st (0-0) in CUSA
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
16.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Missouri State's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
Missouri State has a 16.7% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Missouri State's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:3% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:8% | ||
| 10/08 | Win prob:32% | ||
| 10/14 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 10/20 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 10/27 | Win prob:73% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:40% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:50% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.8% | 99.8% |
| 6-2 | 10.5% | 84.0% |
| 5-3 | 22.6% | 20.8% |
| 4-4 | 28.5% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 22.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 10.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 16.7% (-0.1%) | 16.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 16.6% (-0.2%) | 16.7% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
100.0%
0.3%Any 3 losses
95.2%
2.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
77.0%
7.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.4%
0.2%98.4%
0.1%97.1%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.5%
0.1%92.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
0.2%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.0%
0.1%87.4%
0.1%87.2%
0.2%85.7%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.5%
0.1%83.8%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
0.3%83.2%
0.2%83.1%
0.2%83.0%
0.2%82.6%
0.3%82.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.6%
0.1%79.1%
0.2%78.4%
0.3%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.1%
0.4%76.5%
<0.1%75.7%
0.5%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.7%
0.3%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.3%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26