Missouri St

Missouri StateBears

0-0 T1st (0-0) in CUSA

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

16.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is Missouri State's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?

Missouri State has a 16.7% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Missouri State's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Missouri StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
9/05
Win prob:3%
9/12
Win prob:90%
9/19
Win prob:52%
9/26
Win prob:8%
10/08
Win prob:32%
10/14
Win prob:53%
10/20
Win prob:36%
10/27
Win prob:73%
11/07
Win prob:50%
11/14
Win prob:68%
11/21
Win prob:40%
11/28
Win prob:50%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Missouri StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.3%
100.0%
7-1
2.8%
99.8%
6-2
10.5%
84.0%
5-3
22.6%
20.8%
4-4
28.5%
0.1%
3-5
22.1%
0%
2-6
10.2%
0%
1-7
2.6%
0%
0-8
0.3%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Missouri St CCG Opponents

if Missouri St makes the CCG

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Missouri StThis Week's Impact

Game
Missouri StCCG OddsAway
Missouri StCCG OddsHome
16.7%
(-0.1%)
16.8%
(+0.0%)
16.6%
(-0.2%)
16.7%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Missouri StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Missouri St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
100.0%
0.3%
Any 3 losses
95.2%
2.0%
New Mexico StSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
0.2%
DelawareSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
0.2%
KennesawSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
0.1%
MarshallSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
0.1%
Sam Houston StTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
0.1%
DelawareMarshallTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertySMUTexas A&M
100.0%
0.1%
MarshallTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMarshallTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertyTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLindenwoodSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
LindenwoodSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMarshallSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallSMUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNew Mexico StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMarshallTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
SMUSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLibertySMU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareMarshallSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallSMUWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNew Mexico StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMarshallTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMarshallSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawMarshall
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawMarshallTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyLindenwoodTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico StTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
LindenwoodMarshallTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMarshallSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
LindenwoodSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawNew Mexico StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareSMUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlMarshall
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLindenwoodTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMarshallNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertySMU
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallNew Mexico StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
SMUSam Houston StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSMUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNew Mexico StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertySam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawMarshallSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallSam Houston StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico StSMUWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawLindenwoodNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLindenwoodTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StSMUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareMarshallWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawLindenwoodTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico StSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico StSMUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLindenwoodSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyNew Mexico StSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMarshallWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawMarshall
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StMarshall
100.0%
<0.1%
SMUTexas A&MWKU
99.6%
0.3%
Jacksonville StSam Houston StTexas A&M
90.9%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLibertyTexas A&M
90.0%
<0.1%
DelawareNew Mexico StTexas A&M
88.2%
<0.1%
LibertyTexas A&MWKU
87.5%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawTexas A&M
87.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlTexas A&MWKU
86.4%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSMUWKU
85.7%
<0.1%
DelawareSMUWKU
82.3%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StTexas A&MWKU
82.1%
<0.1%
KennesawTexas A&MWKU
82.1%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StTexas A&M
81.8%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlTexas A&M
81.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StTexas A&M
75.7%
<0.1%
LibertyNew Mexico StTexas A&M
75.0%
<0.1%
KennesawSMUWKU
75.0%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawTexas A&M
75.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertyTexas A&M
73.3%
<0.1%
LibertySMUWKU
71.4%
<0.1%
DelawareTexas A&MWKU
71.0%
<0.1%
DelawareSam Houston StTexas A&M
66.7%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawSMU
66.7%
<0.1%
KennesawLibertySMU
66.7%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawSMU
66.7%
<0.1%
KennesawLibertyTexas A&M
62.5%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StSMUWKU
55.6%
<0.1%
LibertyMarshallWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertySMU
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlNew Mexico St
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StLiberty
50.0%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
77.0%
7.2%
Florida IntlMarshallSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
0.1%
MarshallNew Mexico StSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareMarshallSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
0.2%
LibertyMarshallSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
0.1%
LindenwoodNew Mexico StSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawMarshallTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawMarshallNew Mexico StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallSMUSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
LindenwoodSMUSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLindenwoodSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyLindenwoodTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawMarshallTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
LindenwoodMarshallSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
LindenwoodSMUTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMarshallNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
LindenwoodMarshallTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertyMarshallSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawLindenwoodSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLindenwoodSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLindenwoodMarshallTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLindenwoodNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlLindenwoodSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyLindenwoodSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLindenwoodMarshallTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyLindenwoodSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLindenwoodSMUTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallNew Mexico StSMUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawMarshallSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico StSMUSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLindenwoodNew Mexico StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLindenwoodSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMarshallSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico StSMUSam Houston StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertyLindenwoodTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallNew Mexico StTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMarshallSMUWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareMarshallNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallSam Houston StTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMarshallSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawLindenwoodTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLindenwoodMarshallTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawMarshallSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StLindenwoodTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlMarshallSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawMarshallSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyLindenwoodMarshallTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
LindenwoodMarshallNew Mexico StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLindenwoodMarshallSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertyLindenwoodTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMarshallSMUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLindenwoodSMUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
LindenwoodMarshallSam Houston StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallNew Mexico StSMUWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLindenwoodNew Mexico StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawLindenwoodNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMarshallSMUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMarshallNew Mexico StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
LindenwoodNew Mexico StTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawLindenwoodTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLindenwoodSMUWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawLibertyLindenwoodTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawLindenwoodTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawLindenwoodSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawLindenwoodSMUWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMarshallSMUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLindenwoodTexas A&MWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawLindenwoodNew Mexico StTexas A&M
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlMarshallWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallSMUTexas A&MWKU
99.6%
0.3%
Jacksonville StMarshallSMUTexas A&M
99.4%
0.2%
KennesawMarshallSMUTexas A&M
98.4%
0.1%
LibertySMUSam Houston StTexas A&M
97.1%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StSMUSam Houston StTexas A&M
95.8%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNew Mexico StSMUTexas A&M
95.5%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNew Mexico StSMUTexas A&M
93.9%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawMarshallTexas A&M
93.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSMUSam Houston StTexas A&M
93.2%
<0.1%
KennesawSMUSam Houston StTexas A&M
93.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StMarshallTexas A&M
92.6%
<0.1%
SMUSam Houston StTexas A&MWKU
92.5%
0.1%
DelawareSMUSam Houston StTexas A&M
92.1%
<0.1%
KennesawNew Mexico StSMUTexas A&M
91.7%
<0.1%
LibertyNew Mexico StSMUTexas A&M
91.2%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMarshallTexas A&MWKU
90.9%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StSMUTexas A&M
90.6%
0.2%
DelawareFlorida IntlMarshallTexas A&M
90.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLibertyMarshallTexas A&M
88.9%
<0.1%
DelawareMarshallSam Houston StTexas A&M
88.9%
<0.1%
New Mexico StSMUTexas A&MWKU
88.0%
0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawSMUTexas A&M
87.4%
0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawSMUTexas A&M
87.2%
0.2%
DelawareNew Mexico StSMUTexas A&M
85.7%
0.1%
DelawareLindenwoodTexas A&MWKU
85.7%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMarshallNew Mexico StTexas A&M
85.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLibertySMUTexas A&M
85.5%
0.1%
DelawareMarshallTexas A&MWKU
83.8%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertyMarshallSMU
83.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSMUTexas A&MWKU
83.3%
0.3%
DelawareFlorida IntlSMUTexas A&M
83.2%
0.2%
DelawareKennesawSMUTexas A&M
83.1%
0.2%
KennesawSMUTexas A&MWKU
83.0%
0.2%
DelawareLibertySMUTexas A&M
82.6%
0.3%
Jacksonville StMarshallTexas A&MWKU
82.3%
<0.1%
DelawareMarshallSMUWKU
80.0%
<0.1%
KennesawMarshallTexas A&MWKU
80.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMarshallSMUWKU
80.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMarshallSMUWKU
80.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMarshallSam Houston StTexas A&M
80.0%
<0.1%
KennesawLibertySMUTexas A&M
79.6%
0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertySMUTexas A&M
79.1%
0.2%
DelawareJacksonville StSMUTexas A&M
78.4%
0.3%
DelawareJacksonville StMarshallSMU
77.8%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertyMarshallTexas A&M
77.8%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StSMUTexas A&MWKU
77.1%
0.4%
Florida IntlJacksonville StMarshallTexas A&M
76.5%
<0.1%
DelawareSMUTexas A&MWKU
75.7%
0.5%
DelawareMarshallNew Mexico StTexas A&M
75.0%
<0.1%
DelawareMarshallSMUSam Houston St
75.0%
<0.1%
LibertySMUTexas A&MWKU
74.7%
0.3%
DelawareLibertyMarshallTexas A&M
71.4%
<0.1%
KennesawMarshallSMUWKU
70.0%
<0.1%
KennesawLibertyMarshallTexas A&M
66.7%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawMarshallSMU
66.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StMarshallSMU
66.7%
<0.1%
KennesawNew Mexico StSam Houston StTexas A&M
66.7%
<0.1%
LibertyMarshallTexas A&MWKU
63.6%
<0.1%
New Mexico StSam Houston StTexas A&MWKU
60.0%
<0.1%
DelawareNew Mexico StSam Houston StTexas A&M
60.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNew Mexico StSMUWKU
60.0%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawNew Mexico StTexas A&M
57.1%
<0.1%
LibertyNew Mexico StSam Houston StTexas A&M
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StLindenwoodSMU
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlNew Mexico StTexas A&M
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMarshallNew Mexico StTexas A&M
50.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StSam Houston StTexas A&MWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawSMUSam Houston St
50.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMarshallSam Houston StWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawNew Mexico StSMU
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StNew Mexico StSMU
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertySMUSam Houston St
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLibertyNew Mexico StSMU
50.0%
<0.1%
KennesawLibertySMUSam Houston St
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareMarshallNew Mexico StSam Houston St
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StSam Houston StTexas A&M
45.5%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertySam Houston StTexas A&M
44.4%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StSam Houston StTexas A&M
44.4%
<0.1%
LibertySam Houston StTexas A&MWKU
44.4%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawNew Mexico StTexas A&M
42.9%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawSMUWKU
40.0%
<0.1%
DelawareSMUSam Houston StWKU
37.5%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StSMUSam Houston St
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StSMUWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
DelawareNew Mexico StSMUSam Houston St
33.3%
<0.1%
KennesawLibertySMUWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawSMUWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNew Mexico StSam Houston StTexas A&M
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSam Houston StTexas A&MWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawLibertySMU
33.3%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawSam Houston StTexas A&M
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLindenwoodTexas A&MWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawTexas A&MWKU
31.8%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertyNew Mexico StTexas A&M
30.0%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawLibertySMU
28.6%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertySam Houston StTexas A&M
28.6%
<0.1%
DelawareNew Mexico StTexas A&MWKU
28.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawNew Mexico StSMU
25.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StNew Mexico StTexas A&M
25.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNew Mexico StTexas A&MWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlLibertySMU
25.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StLibertySMU
22.2%
<0.1%
KennesawNew Mexico StTexas A&MWKU
21.4%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StTexas A&MWKU
20.9%
<0.1%
KennesawSam Houston StTexas A&MWKU
20.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StNew Mexico StTexas A&M
20.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawLibertyTexas A&M
20.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawNew Mexico StTexas A&M
20.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLibertyNew Mexico StTexas A&M
20.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlTexas A&MWKU
19.3%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StKennesawTexas A&M
18.8%
<0.1%
LibertyNew Mexico StTexas A&MWKU
18.8%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertyTexas A&MWKU
18.6%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertySMUWKU
18.2%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlJacksonville StTexas A&M
17.1%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawSMUWKU
16.7%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StSMUWKU
16.7%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlJacksonville StSMU
16.7%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlSMUWKU
16.7%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlSam Houston StTexas A&M
16.7%
<0.1%
KennesawLibertyTexas A&MWKU
16.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StTexas A&MWKU
15.9%
<0.1%
DelawareSam Houston StTexas A&MWKU
15.4%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StLibertyTexas A&M
15.4%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertyNew Mexico StTexas A&M
14.3%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlLibertyTexas A&M
13.6%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawTexas A&MWKU
13.6%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLibertyTexas A&MWKU
13.3%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StKennesawLibertyTexas A&M
13.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlKennesawTexas A&M
13.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertyTexas A&MWKU
11.6%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StNew Mexico StSMU
11.1%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StKennesawTexas A&M
10.5%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLibertySMUWKU
10.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNew Mexico StTexas A&MWKU
10.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StLibertyTexas A&M
8.7%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StKennesawSMU
8.3%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawLibertyTexas A&M
6.3%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawTexas A&MWKU
3.2%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com