Missouri StateBears
3-5 T3rd (2-2) in CUSA
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.5%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Missouri State's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
Missouri State has a 0.5% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Missouri State's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What is the biggest game this week for Missouri State's Conference USA Championship Game odds?
Missouri State's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Florida International would put its Conference USA Championship Game odds at 1.2%, while a loss would drop them to <0.1%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L0-50 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W48-14 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | L24-30 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | L24-34 | |
| 6 | 10/08 | L13-34 | |
| 7 | 10/14 | W24-21 | |
| 8 | 10/20 | L38-61 | |
| 9 | 10/27 | W24-3 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:37% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:61% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:19% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:7% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 0.3% | 65.8% |
| 5-3 | 6.0% | 4.4% |
| 4-4 | 29.5% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 45.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 18.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 0.3% (-0.2%) | 0.7% (+0.2%) | ||
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.1%) | ||
| 1.2% (+0.7%) | 0.1% (-0.4%) | ||
| 1.4% (+0.9%) | 0.4% (-0.1%) | ||
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw State
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico StateMissouri State
Sam HoustonCCG: 6.5% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Missouri StateCCG: 1.3% • Scenario: 36.7%
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02