Liberty

LibertyFlames

1-1 T1st (0-0) in CUSA

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

27.0%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Liberty's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?

Liberty has a 27.0% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Liberty's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

LibertySchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
@James MadisonJMU
L13-20
29/12
vsGardner-WebbGWEB
W24-23
39/19
vsBall StBALL
Win prob:82%
49/24
@Coastal CarCCU
Win prob:43%
510/02
@DelawareDEL
Win prob:26%
610/08
vsSam Houston StSHSU
Win prob:75%
810/22
@KennesawKENN
Win prob:47%
910/31
vsFlorida IntlFIU
Win prob:59%
1011/07
@New Mexico StNMSU
Win prob:54%
1111/14
vsMTSUMTSU
Win prob:77%
1211/21
vsWKUWKU
Win prob:73%
1311/28
@Missouri StMOST
Win prob:51%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

LibertyRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.8%
100.0%
7-1
6.1%
99.4%
6-2
18.2%
80.0%
5-3
28.7%
19.2%
4-4
26.2%
0.1%
3-5
14.4%
0%
2-6
4.7%
0%
1-7
0.8%
0%
0-8
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Liberty CCG Opponents

if Liberty makes the CCG

DELDelaware
52.0%
JXSTJacksonville St
15.3%
FIUFlorida Intl
9.8%
KENNKennesaw
8.1%
MOSTMissouri St
4.3%
NMSUNew Mexico St
3.9%
WKUWKU
3.0%
SHSUSam Houston St
2.1%
MTSUMTSU
1.4%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

LibertyThis Week's Impact

Game
LibertyCCG OddsAway Wins
LibertyCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
Coastal CarCCU@DelawareDEL
27.0%
(+0.0%)		27.0%
(-0.0%)
Ball StBALL@LibertyLIB
27.0%
(-0.0%)		27.0%
(+0.0%)
WKUWKU@IndianaIU
27.2%
(+0.1%)		27.0%
(+0.0%)
Florida IntlFIU@FL AtlanticFAU
27.0%
(-0.0%)		27.0%
(+0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Missouri StMOST
27.0%
(-0.0%)		27.0%
(+0.0%)
Ga SouthernGASO@Jacksonville StJXST
27.0%
(+0.0%)		27.0%
(-0.0%)
NevadaNEV@MTSUMTSU
27.1%
(+0.1%)		26.8%
(-0.2%)
NichollsNICH@Sam Houston StSHSU
27.1%
(+0.1%)		27.0%
(-0.0%)
KennesawKENN@TennesseeTENN
26.8%
(-0.2%)		27.0%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

LibertyLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Liberty CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%
Any 1 loss
99.5%
2.6%
Coastal Car
100.0%
0.4%
Ball St
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico St
100.0%
0.2%
WKU
99.9%
0.1%
Sam Houston St
99.9%
<0.1%
MTSU
99.9%
<0.1%
Missouri St
99.8%
0.3%
Kennesaw
99.7%
0.3%
Florida Intl
99.7%
0.2%
Delaware
98.7%
0.9%
Any 2 losses
86.6%
9.9%
Ball StMTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StCoastal Car
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNew Mexico St
99.9%
0.3%
Coastal CarMissouri St
99.9%
0.4%
Coastal CarWKU
99.9%
0.1%
Coastal CarMTSU
99.8%
0.1%
Coastal CarKennesaw
99.8%
0.4%
Coastal CarSam Houston St
99.7%
0.1%
Ball StFlorida Intl
99.5%
<0.1%
Ball StSam Houston St
99.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarFlorida Intl
99.5%
0.3%
Ball StKennesaw
99.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarDelaware
98.7%
1.1%
Ball StDelaware
98.7%
0.2%
MTSUWKU
94.9%
<0.1%
MTSUMissouri St
92.5%
<0.1%
MTSUNew Mexico St
92.4%
<0.1%
Sam Houston StWKU
92.4%
<0.1%
MTSUSam Houston St
91.6%
<0.1%
New Mexico StSam Houston St
91.2%
<0.1%
New Mexico StWKU
90.9%
<0.1%
Missouri StSam Houston St
90.8%
<0.1%
Missouri StNew Mexico St
90.0%
0.2%
KennesawMTSU
89.3%
0.1%
Missouri StWKU
88.6%
0.1%
KennesawMissouri St
88.4%
0.3%
KennesawWKU
88.1%
0.1%
KennesawNew Mexico St
87.5%
0.3%
Florida IntlMTSU
87.5%
<0.1%
KennesawSam Houston St
86.8%
0.1%
Florida IntlWKU
86.2%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNew Mexico St
85.3%
0.2%
Florida IntlSam Houston St
84.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMissouri St
83.5%
0.2%
DelawareMTSU
82.5%
0.3%
Florida IntlKennesaw
80.9%
0.2%
DelawareNew Mexico St
78.8%
0.7%
DelawareWKU
78.6%
0.3%
DelawareSam Houston St
77.5%
0.3%
DelawareMissouri St
77.2%
0.8%
DelawareKennesaw
71.6%
1.0%
DelawareFlorida Intl
64.6%
0.6%
Any 3 losses
50.5%
20.8%
Ball StCoastal CarNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StCoastal CarMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StCoastal CarMTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StMTSUWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StCoastal CarWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StCoastal CarKennesaw
99.8%
<0.1%
Ball StCoastal CarSam Houston St
99.6%
<0.1%
Ball StCoastal CarFlorida Intl
99.6%
<0.1%
Ball StCoastal CarDelaware
98.7%
0.2%
Ball StMTSUSam Houston St
98.4%
<0.1%
Ball StMTSUNew Mexico St
94.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMTSUNew Mexico St
93.1%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMTSUMissouri St
92.9%
0.1%
Coastal CarMTSUWKU
92.6%
<0.1%
Ball StKennesawMTSU
91.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNew Mexico StSam Houston St
91.8%
0.1%
Coastal CarNew Mexico StWKU
90.8%
0.1%
Coastal CarMissouri StNew Mexico St
90.6%
0.3%
Coastal CarKennesawMTSU
90.5%
0.1%
Coastal CarMTSUSam Houston St
90.5%
<0.1%
Ball StMissouri StWKU
90.5%
<0.1%
Ball StKennesawNew Mexico St
90.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMissouri StWKU
90.4%
0.1%
Ball StMTSUMissouri St
90.1%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMissouri StSam Houston St
90.0%
0.1%
Ball StNew Mexico StSam Houston St
89.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSam Houston StWKU
89.7%
<0.1%
Ball StFlorida IntlMTSU
89.7%
<0.1%
Ball StMissouri StSam Houston St
89.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarKennesawSam Houston St
88.9%
0.1%
Ball StNew Mexico StWKU
88.9%
<0.1%
Ball StSam Houston StWKU
88.4%
<0.1%
Ball StMissouri StNew Mexico St
88.1%
<0.1%
Ball StFlorida IntlWKU
87.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarKennesawNew Mexico St
87.9%
0.4%
Coastal CarKennesawWKU
87.5%
0.2%
Ball StKennesawMissouri St
87.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarKennesawMissouri St
87.1%
0.4%
Coastal CarFlorida IntlMTSU
86.1%
<0.1%
Ball StFlorida IntlNew Mexico St
86.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarFlorida IntlNew Mexico St
85.5%
0.2%
Ball StKennesawWKU
84.5%
<0.1%
Ball StKennesawSam Houston St
84.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarFlorida IntlMissouri St
83.8%
0.3%
Ball StFlorida IntlKennesaw
83.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarFlorida IntlSam Houston St
82.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarFlorida IntlWKU
82.2%
0.1%
Ball StDelawareMTSU
82.0%
<0.1%
Ball StFlorida IntlMissouri St
81.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarDelawareMTSU
81.5%
0.3%
Coastal CarFlorida IntlKennesaw
80.2%
0.3%
Ball StFlorida IntlSam Houston St
80.0%
<0.1%
Ball StDelawareNew Mexico St
79.9%
0.1%
Coastal CarDelawareWKU
79.6%
0.4%
Coastal CarDelawareSam Houston St
79.2%
0.4%
Coastal CarDelawareNew Mexico St
78.4%
0.9%
Coastal CarDelawareMissouri St
78.2%
1.1%
Ball StDelawareWKU
78.1%
<0.1%
Ball StDelawareSam Houston St
77.0%
<0.1%
Ball StDelawareMissouri St
74.7%
0.2%
Ball StDelawareKennesaw
72.1%
0.2%
Coastal CarDelawareKennesaw
71.5%
1.3%
Ball StDelawareFlorida Intl
65.9%
0.1%
Coastal CarDelawareFlorida Intl
65.6%
0.8%
MTSUNew Mexico StSam Houston St
39.5%
<0.1%
MTSUNew Mexico StWKU
37.1%
<0.1%
MTSUSam Houston StWKU
35.3%
<0.1%
MTSUMissouri StSam Houston St
34.0%
<0.1%
MTSUMissouri StWKU
32.0%
<0.1%
MTSUMissouri StNew Mexico St
32.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StNew Mexico StWKU
30.7%
<0.1%
KennesawMTSUNew Mexico St
30.6%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMTSUWKU
30.3%
<0.1%
Missouri StSam Houston StWKU
30.0%
<0.1%
KennesawMTSUSam Houston St
29.8%
<0.1%
Missouri StNew Mexico StSam Houston St
29.5%
<0.1%
New Mexico StSam Houston StWKU
29.1%
<0.1%
KennesawMTSUWKU
28.7%
<0.1%
DelawareMTSUSam Houston St
27.4%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMTSUSam Houston St
27.3%
<0.1%
DelawareMTSUWKU
26.5%
<0.1%
KennesawNew Mexico StSam Houston St
26.3%
0.1%
KennesawNew Mexico StWKU
26.1%
0.1%
KennesawSam Houston StWKU
26.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMTSUNew Mexico St
25.9%
<0.1%
KennesawMTSUMissouri St
25.5%
0.1%
Florida IntlMissouri StWKU
25.3%
<0.1%
KennesawMissouri StSam Houston St
24.4%
0.1%
KennesawMissouri StNew Mexico St
24.3%
0.3%
DelawareMTSUNew Mexico St
24.3%
0.2%
Florida IntlSam Houston StWKU
24.2%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMTSUMissouri St
23.8%
<0.1%
DelawareMTSUMissouri St
22.8%
0.3%
KennesawMissouri StWKU
22.7%
0.1%
Florida IntlNew Mexico StSam Houston St
22.4%
<0.1%
DelawareNew Mexico StSam Houston St
22.1%
0.2%
DelawareNew Mexico StWKU
21.9%
0.3%
DelawareSam Houston StWKU
21.8%
0.1%
DelawareKennesawMTSU
21.7%
0.3%
Florida IntlNew Mexico StWKU
21.6%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawMTSU
21.5%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMissouri StNew Mexico St
20.9%
0.2%
DelawareMissouri StSam Houston St
20.5%
0.3%
DelawareMissouri StWKU
19.9%
0.3%
Florida IntlMissouri StSam Houston St
19.8%
<0.1%
Florida IntlKennesawWKU
19.5%
<0.1%
DelawareMissouri StNew Mexico St
19.4%
0.7%
Florida IntlKennesawNew Mexico St
19.0%
0.2%
DelawareKennesawSam Houston St
18.2%
0.3%
DelawareFlorida IntlMTSU
17.8%
0.2%
DelawareKennesawNew Mexico St
17.7%
0.8%
Florida IntlKennesawSam Houston St
17.5%
<0.1%
DelawareKennesawWKU
17.4%
0.4%
Florida IntlKennesawMissouri St
17.4%
0.2%
DelawareKennesawMissouri St
16.2%
0.9%
DelawareFlorida IntlWKU
16.0%
0.2%
DelawareFlorida IntlSam Houston St
14.9%
0.2%
DelawareFlorida IntlNew Mexico St
13.4%
0.5%
DelawareFlorida IntlMissouri St
13.1%
0.6%
DelawareFlorida IntlKennesaw
10.7%
0.7%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

LibertyCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com