LibertyFlames
7-1 T1st (4-0) in CUSA
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
99.8%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Liberty's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
Liberty has a 99.8% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Liberty's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Liberty need to do to reach the Conference USA Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Liberty's Conference USA Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 100%.
What is the biggest game this week for Liberty's Conference USA Championship Game odds?
Liberty's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating New Mexico State would put its Conference USA Championship Game odds at 99.9%, while a loss would drop them to 98.3%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L13-20 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W24-23 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W51-15 | |
| 4 | 9/24 | W34-17 | |
| 5 | 10/02 | W30-14 | |
| 6 | 10/08 | W35-3 | |
| 8 | 10/22 | W34-6 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | W49-10 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:94% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:98% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:96% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:93% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 81.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 16.9% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 1.2% | 89.0% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 24.0% |
| 4-4 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 99.8% (-0.0%) | 99.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 99.9% (+0.0%) | 99.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 99.8% (-0.0%) | 99.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 99.9% (+0.1%) | 99.8% (-0.0%) | ||
| 100.0% (+0.1%) | 98.3% (-1.5%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateLiberty
Florida International
Sam HoustonCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 3.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 99.9% • Scenario: 93.5%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02