LibertyFlames
0-0 T1st (0-0) in CUSA
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
30.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Liberty's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
Liberty has a 30.2% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Liberty's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:31% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:76% | ||
| 9/24 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 10/02 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 10/08 | Win prob:78% | ||
| 10/22 | Win prob:47% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:67% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:49% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:50% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 7.3% | 99.7% |
| 6-2 | 19.4% | 83.0% |
| 5-3 | 28.4% | 19.4% |
| 4-4 | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 13.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 30.2% (+0.0%) | 30.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 30.3% (+0.1%) | 30.2% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
99.8%
1.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.3%
0.1%Any 2 losses
92.8%
5.6%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.4%99.3%
0.1%99.1%
0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.3%
0.1%96.5%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%91.1%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%88.3%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%86.3%
0.1%85.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.2%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.2%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.6%
0.1%81.3%
0.2%80.3%
<0.1%75.8%
0.2%75.4%
<0.1%74.1%
0.1%68.6%
0.2%Any 3 losses
70.7%
14.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.4%99.3%
0.3%99.0%
0.1%98.3%
0.2%98.2%
0.1%98.0%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.9%
0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.1%
0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%91.3%
0.2%91.0%
<0.1%90.9%
0.2%90.8%
<0.1%90.6%
0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.4%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.8%
0.2%89.7%
0.4%89.2%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.5%
0.1%86.0%
0.2%85.7%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.2%
0.2%85.1%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.0%
0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.8%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.4%
0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.4%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
0.2%79.4%
0.4%79.3%
<0.1%78.3%
0.4%77.7%
0.3%74.2%
<0.1%73.5%
0.4%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.8%
0.4%69.2%
0.2%66.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.9%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.7%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.0%
0.1%21.8%
0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.3%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.7%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.5%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%13.5%
0.1%13.1%
<0.1%11.4%
0.1%10.2%
0.1%9.1%
0.2%8.9%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
46.3%
19.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.8%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.1%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%92.4%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.0%
<0.1%90.9%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.8%
0.2%89.7%
<0.1%89.6%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.8%
0.1%88.8%
0.1%88.7%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%88.0%
0.2%87.6%
0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.8%
0.1%86.4%
<0.1%86.3%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.7%
0.3%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.6%
<0.1%83.3%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.9%
0.1%82.8%
0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
0.4%82.3%
0.1%82.2%
0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.4%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
0.2%80.8%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.1%
0.3%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
0.4%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.3%
0.1%71.7%
0.3%71.4%
<0.1%70.8%
0.4%68.4%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.7%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.2%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.2%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.5%
0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.2%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.9%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%28.1%
0.1%27.9%
<0.1%27.9%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.6%
0.1%26.3%
0.2%26.2%
<0.1%25.6%
0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
0.1%24.0%
0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.9%
0.3%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
0.2%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.5%
0.1%20.3%
0.3%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.9%
0.1%19.8%
<0.1%19.8%
<0.1%19.7%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.4%
0.1%19.4%
0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.9%
0.2%18.8%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.3%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.7%
0.1%17.6%
0.3%17.2%
0.2%16.8%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.1%
0.2%16.0%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.3%
0.2%15.2%
<0.1%15.2%
0.2%15.2%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.5%
0.5%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.2%
0.1%14.0%
0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
0.2%13.0%
0.3%12.5%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.2%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
0.2%10.9%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
0.2%10.5%
<0.1%9.9%
0.4%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
0.5%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26