New Mexico StateAggies
3-5 T3rd (2-2) in CUSA
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is New Mexico State's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
New Mexico State has a 0.2% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. New Mexico State's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What is the biggest game this week for New Mexico State's Conference USA Championship Game odds?
New Mexico State's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Liberty would put its Conference USA Championship Game odds at 1.4%, while a loss would drop them to 0.1%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/29 | L17-34 | |
| 1 | 9/05 | W51-14 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L19-29 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | L18-42 | |
| 5 | 10/01 | W34-13 | |
| 6 | 10/07 | L3-22 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | W30-24 | |
| 9 | 10/28 | L0-24 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:6% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:39% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:37% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:47% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 0.5% | 15.3% |
| 5-3 | 8.3% | 1.5% |
| 4-4 | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 41.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 18.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (-0.1%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.8% (+0.6%) | 0.1% (-0.1%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 1.4% (+1.2%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Delaware
Western KentuckyNew Mexico State
Sam HoustonCCG: 4.6% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateCCG: 1.4% • Scenario: 6.5%
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02