New Mexico St

New Mexico StateAggies

0-0 T1st (0-0) in CUSA

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

5.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is New Mexico State's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?

New Mexico State has a 5.9% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. New Mexico State's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

New Mexico StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
8/29
@Florida StFSU
Win prob:5%
9/05
vsMercyhurstMERC
Win prob:90%
9/12
@HawaiiHAW
Win prob:18%
9/26
vsNew MexicoUNM
Win prob:28%
10/01
vsWKUWKU
Win prob:31%
10/07
@Florida IntlFIU
Win prob:37%
10/21
@Sam Houston StSHSU
Win prob:51%
10/28
vsJacksonville StJXST
Win prob:39%
11/07
vsLibertyLIB
Win prob:37%
11/14
@Missouri StMOST
Win prob:32%
11/21
vsDelawareDEL
Win prob:35%
11/28
@MTSUMTSU
Win prob:45%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

New Mexico StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.1%
100.0%
7-1
0.5%
100.0%
6-2
3.3%
85.2%
5-3
10.9%
22.6%
4-4
22.1%
0.1%
3-5
28.5%
0%
2-6
22.6%
0%
1-7
10.1%
0%
0-8
1.9%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely New Mexico St CCG Opponents

if New Mexico St makes the CCG

Western KentuckyWKU
30.6%
DelawareDelaware
20.0%
LibertyLiberty
17.8%
Kennesaw StateKennesaw
16.8%
Jacksonville StateJacksonville St
14.8%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

New Mexico StThis Week's Impact

Game
New Mexico StCCG OddsAway
New Mexico StCCG OddsHome
Jacksonville StJXST@North Dakota StNDSU
6.0%
(+0.1%)		5.8%
(-0.1%)
New Mexico StNMSU@Florida StFSU
6.4%
(+0.5%)		5.8%
(-0.0%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

New Mexico StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
New Mexico St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
Florida St
100.0%
<0.1%
Hawaii
100.0%
<0.1%
WKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Delaware
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
89.4%
0.3%
Florida StHawaiiMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMissouri StSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMTSUNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiLiberty
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMissouri StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyNew MexicoWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StHawaii
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyMTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StLiberty
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StHawaii
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StNew MexicoWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiJacksonville StMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StMTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertySam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiJacksonville St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMTSUWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNew MexicoWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiMTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMTSUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StMTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUMissouri StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiLibertyMTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMTSUNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertyWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StMercyhurst
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlHawaii
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiJacksonville StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiJacksonville StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMissouri StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNew MexicoWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMissouri StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
MercyhurstSam Houston StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StMTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiLibertyWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StSam Houston StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMercyhurstWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiMTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMTSUNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMissouri StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlFlorida St
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareSam Houston StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiSam Houston StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiJacksonville St
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StNew MexicoWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiLibertyNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMercyhurstMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareMercyhurstNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMTSUMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StMercyhurst
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StLiberty
85.7%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StLiberty
83.3%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StJacksonville St
80.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StMissouri St
71.4%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyWKU
71.4%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StWKU
68.8%
<0.1%
Florida StMissouri StWKU
66.7%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyMissouri St
66.7%
<0.1%
DelawareMissouri StNew Mexico
66.7%
<0.1%
HawaiiLibertySam Houston St
66.7%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StWKU
66.7%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StSam Houston St
60.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiJacksonville St
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StJacksonville St
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiJacksonville StLiberty
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiLiberty
33.3%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StMissouri St
33.3%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
71.3%
1.9%
Florida StHawaiiMissouri StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiJacksonville StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiLibertyNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlHawaiiNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiMissouri StSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiMercyhurstNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUMissouri StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiMTSUNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiMTSUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StMTSUNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StMercyhurstNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiNew MexicoWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StHawaiiSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StHawaiiMercyhurst
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StHawaiiNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiLibertyNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiMTSUMercyhurst
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiMercyhurstMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMTSUNew MexicoWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiLibertySam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiJacksonville StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiNew MexicoWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StHawaiiNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiJacksonville StSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StHawaiiMercyhurst
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMTSUMercyhurstMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiMercyhurstWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyMercyhurstMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMissouri StNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUMercyhurstSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoSam Houston StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StMercyhurstNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiLibertyMTSUNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiJacksonville StMTSUNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUMercyhurstWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiJacksonville StMercyhurst
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiLibertyNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiLibertyMTSUWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StMercyhurstWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiJacksonville StLibertyMercyhurst
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StMercyhurstSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyMercyhurstNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyMTSUNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiMTSUNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMTSUMissouri StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiMercyhurstNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiJacksonville StMercyhurst
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMercyhurstSam Houston StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiMercyhurstWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiJacksonville StNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMercyhurstNew MexicoWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StMTSUMercyhurst
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
MercyhurstMissouri StNew MexicoWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiMercyhurstSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMTSUNew MexicoSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiMTSUSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StNew MexicoSam Houston StWKU
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiMTSUMercyhurst
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMercyhurstMissouri StSam Houston St
100.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMTSUMissouri StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiMTSUWKU
96.5%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StHawaiiMissouri St
96.3%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiLibertyMTSU
95.2%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StMissouri StNew Mexico
95.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlFlorida StHawaii
94.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StHawaiiMissouri St
94.6%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StHawaiiJacksonville St
94.4%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StMissouri StNew Mexico
93.8%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyMissouri StNew Mexico
93.3%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiJacksonville StMTSU
93.3%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiSam Houston StWKU
92.9%
<0.1%
Florida StMissouri StNew MexicoSam Houston St
92.9%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiMTSUMissouri St
92.9%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNew MexicoWKU
90.9%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StMTSUNew Mexico
90.9%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StMissouri StNew Mexico
90.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StHawaiiWKU
89.7%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiLibertyMissouri St
89.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiMTSUMissouri StNew Mexico
88.9%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StMTSUNew Mexico
88.9%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StHawaiiSam Houston St
87.5%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StNew MexicoSam Houston St
87.5%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StJacksonville StNew Mexico
87.5%
<0.1%
HawaiiLibertyNew MexicoWKU
87.5%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StHawaiiJacksonville St
86.7%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiJacksonville StMissouri St
86.2%
<0.1%
HawaiiLibertyMissouri StNew Mexico
85.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiMissouri StNew Mexico
85.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiNew MexicoWKU
85.7%
<0.1%
HawaiiJacksonville StMissouri StNew Mexico
83.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StHawaiiWKU
82.8%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StHawaiiLiberty
82.6%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StJacksonville StNew Mexico
82.3%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiMissouri StWKU
81.8%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StSam Houston StWKU
80.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StHawaiiLiberty
79.2%
<0.1%
Florida StNew MexicoSam Houston StWKU
77.8%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StLibertyNew Mexico
77.3%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StNew MexicoWKU
76.9%
<0.1%
HawaiiJacksonville StNew MexicoWKU
75.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StHawaiiMTSU
75.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiMTSUNew Mexico
75.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlFlorida StNew Mexico
75.0%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyMercyhurstWKU
75.0%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiJacksonville StWKU
75.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiJacksonville StNew Mexico
75.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StMercyhurstWKU
75.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiJacksonville StLibertyNew Mexico
75.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StNew MexicoWKU
73.7%
<0.1%
Florida StMissouri StNew MexicoWKU
72.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StLibertyNew Mexico
72.7%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlFlorida StMTSU
71.4%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StNew MexicoSam Houston St
71.4%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StNew MexicoWKU
68.8%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiLibertyWKU
68.4%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyNew MexicoWKU
68.4%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StHawaiiMTSU
66.7%
<0.1%
Florida StHawaiiJacksonville StLiberty
66.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StLibertySam Houston St
66.7%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiMissouri StWKU
66.7%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StLibertyNew Mexico
61.5%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUSam Houston StWKU
60.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMTSUMissouri StWKU
60.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StMTSUSam Houston St
57.1%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StMissouri StSam Houston St
57.1%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiMissouri StNew Mexico
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiLibertyNew Mexico
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StMTSUSam Houston St
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareMissouri StNew MexicoSam Houston St
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StMTSUNew Mexico
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StMissouri StNew Mexico
50.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMercyhurstNew MexicoSam Houston St
50.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiJacksonville StLibertyMissouri St
50.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMissouri StNew MexicoWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiMTSUSam Houston St
50.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiJacksonville StMissouri StWKU
50.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertyMissouri StNew Mexico
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StMTSUWKU
40.0%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StLibertyMissouri St
40.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlHawaiiMTSU
40.0%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StMTSUWKU
40.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StJacksonville StMissouri St
37.5%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StMissouri StWKU
37.5%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StJacksonville StMTSU
36.4%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyMTSUMissouri St
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyMTSUWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiMTSUMissouri StSam Houston St
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StLibertyNew Mexico
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StLibertyWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNew MexicoSam Houston StWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StSam Houston StWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiJacksonville StLiberty
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyMTSUSam Houston St
33.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiLibertyMissouri StWKU
33.3%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StMTSUSam Houston St
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida StMissouri StSam Houston StWKU
30.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMissouri StNew MexicoWKU
28.6%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlHawaiiWKU
28.6%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StLibertyMTSU
28.6%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StJacksonville StLiberty
27.3%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlFlorida StMissouri St
27.3%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlFlorida StSam Houston St
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StLibertyMissouri St
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StMTSUMissouri St
25.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiLibertyMTSU
25.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLibertyNew MexicoWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlFlorida StJacksonville St
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiLibertyWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StJacksonville StWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StLibertyWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiLibertyMTSU
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlHawaiiJacksonville StWKU
25.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMissouri StNew MexicoSam Houston St
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StJacksonville StLiberty
22.2%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StJacksonville StMissouri St
20.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StMTSUWKU
20.0%
<0.1%
DelawareHawaiiJacksonville StWKU
20.0%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StSam Houston StWKU
20.0%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StMissouri StSam Houston St
20.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StLibertySam Houston St
20.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlFlorida StWKU
18.2%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StLibertyMissouri St
16.7%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUMissouri StSam Houston St
16.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StJacksonville StMTSU
16.7%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyMissouri StSam Houston St
16.7%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StLibertyMTSU
16.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StJacksonville StSam Houston St
16.7%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertySam Houston StWKU
16.7%
<0.1%
Florida StLibertyMissouri StWKU
14.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StMissouri StWKU
11.8%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StMissouri StWKU
10.0%
<0.1%
Florida StJacksonville StLibertyWKU
9.1%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUMissouri StWKU
8.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlFlorida StJacksonville StWKU
8.3%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StMTSUMissouri St
7.7%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com