New Mexico StateAggies
1-2 T1st (0-0) in CUSA
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.2%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is New Mexico State's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
New Mexico State has a 9.2% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. New Mexico State's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/29 | L17-34 | |
| 1 | 9/05 | W51-14 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L19-29 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:14% | |
| 5 | 10/01 | Win prob:61% | |
| 6 | 10/07 | Win prob:30% | |
| 8 | 10/21 | Win prob:47% | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:45% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:46% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:38% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:29% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:50% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.1% | 99.6% |
| 6-2 | 5.6% | 83.5% |
| 5-3 | 15.5% | 21.3% |
| 4-4 | 26.0% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 27.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 17.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 9.2% (+0.0%) | 9.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 9.3% (+0.1%) | 9.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 8.8% (-0.4%) | 9.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 9.2% (-0.1%) | 9.3% (+0.1%) | ||
| 9.2% (+0.0%) | 9.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 9.2% (-0.0%) | 9.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 9.2% (+0.0%) | 9.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 9.2% (-0.0%) | 9.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 9.2% (+0.0%) | 9.2% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.6%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.4%
<0.1%
99.3%
<0.1%
99.3%
<0.1%
99.1%
<0.1%
98.8%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
92.6%
1.7%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
<0.1%99.8%
0.2%99.5%
0.1%99.5%
0.1%99.2%
0.2%98.9%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%95.1%
<0.1%94.5%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.4%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%89.6%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.7%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%86.3%
<0.1%86.3%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.7%
<0.1%83.6%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%81.7%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.3%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17