Sam HoustonBearkats
0-2 T1st (0-0) in CUSA
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.9%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Sam Houston's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
Sam Houston has a 5.9% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Sam Houston's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L21-24 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L17-23 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:1% | |
| 6 | 10/08 | Win prob:25% | |
| 7 | 10/14 | Win prob:56% | |
| 8 | 10/21 | Win prob:53% | |
| 9 | 10/27 | Win prob:33% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:25% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:45% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:26% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.6% | 99.2% |
| 6-2 | 3.8% | 77.8% |
| 5-3 | 12.6% | 17.5% |
| 4-4 | 24.5% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 28.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 20.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 7.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 5.9% (-0.0%) | 5.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.9% (+0.0%) | 5.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.8% (-0.0%) | 5.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.9% (-0.0%) | 5.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.8% (-0.1%) | 5.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.8% (-0.0%) | 5.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.8% (-0.0%) | 5.9% (+0.1%) | ||
| 5.9% (+0.0%) | 5.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.3% (-0.5%) | 5.9% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
99.2%
0.6%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
<0.1%99.7%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%99.2%
<0.1%98.9%
0.1%98.5%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.1%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17