Kennesaw StateOwls
0-0 T1st (0-0) in CUSA
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Kennesaw State's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
Kennesaw State has a 22.8% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Kennesaw State's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/03 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:70% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:6% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:44% | ||
| 10/07 | Win prob:55% | ||
| 10/14 | Win prob:47% | ||
| 10/22 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 10/28 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.5% | 99.8% |
| 6-2 | 14.3% | 85.2% |
| 5-3 | 25.3% | 21.6% |
| 4-4 | 27.4% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 18.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 7.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 22.7% (-0.1%) | 22.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.2% (-0.6%) | 22.9% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.6%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
97.8%
1.9%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.3%98.8%
0.2%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
85.9%
6.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%98.3%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%95.9%
0.1%95.3%
0.1%94.9%
0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.9%
0.2%92.8%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.8%
<0.1%90.1%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.9%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%89.0%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%86.9%
0.2%86.6%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.8%
0.2%83.7%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.4%
0.2%82.2%
0.2%81.6%
0.4%81.4%
0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.7%
0.3%77.1%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
0.3%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
55.4%
14.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.2%
0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.1%
0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.4%
0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.7%
<0.1%93.7%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%92.4%
0.3%92.3%
0.2%92.3%
<0.1%92.0%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
0.2%89.7%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.4%
<0.1%88.3%
<0.1%87.5%
0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%85.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.9%
0.1%84.6%
0.2%84.0%
0.3%83.7%
0.4%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
0.2%82.5%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.5%
0.1%78.4%
0.4%77.5%
0.2%77.3%
0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.9%
0.3%75.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.8%
0.1%74.8%
0.3%74.4%
0.1%74.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.5%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.3%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.9%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.8%
0.1%35.1%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%31.4%
0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.9%
0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.8%
0.1%29.8%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%28.7%
0.2%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
0.1%28.3%
0.2%27.3%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
<0.1%24.2%
0.1%23.2%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.5%
0.2%22.4%
0.2%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
0.2%21.6%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.0%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.3%
0.2%18.2%
0.2%18.0%
0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.0%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
0.1%16.3%
0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.3%
0.4%15.2%
0.1%15.2%
0.3%14.6%
0.3%14.5%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.7%
0.3%13.3%
<0.1%12.9%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.4%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.3%Data from 2026-08-26