DelawareBlue Hens
0-0 T1st (0-0) in CUSA
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Delaware's probability of making the Conference USA Championship Game?
Delaware has a 32.5% chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Delaware's Conference USA Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/03 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:14% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:16% | ||
| 10/02 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 10/13 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 10/20 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 10/27 | Win prob:40% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:60% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.0% | 99.9% |
| 6-2 | 20.0% | 85.3% |
| 5-3 | 28.5% | 21.9% |
| 4-4 | 24.2% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 13.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 4.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 32.6% (+0.0%) | 32.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 33.9% (+1.4%) | 32.5% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
0.3%Any 2 losses
98.1%
2.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
90.8%
8.4%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.4%99.5%
0.4%98.1%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%92.9%
0.1%91.5%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.6%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.8%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
0.2%83.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%80.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
0.1%79.1%
0.2%77.8%
<0.1%76.6%
<0.1%75.4%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.0%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.5%
0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
70.2%
17.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.3%
0.4%99.2%
0.1%97.5%
0.2%96.9%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.3%
0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.1%
0.3%95.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.6%
0.2%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.6%
0.2%92.3%
<0.1%92.2%
0.4%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.6%
0.2%91.3%
0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.0%
0.2%91.0%
0.4%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
0.1%90.5%
0.1%90.5%
0.3%90.3%
0.2%90.0%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%89.3%
0.2%88.9%
<0.1%88.8%
0.3%88.5%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.6%
0.2%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
0.3%86.8%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.3%
0.4%84.8%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.0%
0.2%84.0%
<0.1%83.8%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.7%
0.9%82.3%
<0.1%81.9%
0.4%81.5%
0.3%81.4%
0.4%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.0%
0.4%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
0.6%76.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.5%
0.3%74.1%
<0.1%72.9%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
0.6%72.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.8%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.3%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.4%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.7%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.4%
<0.1%23.2%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.3%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.3%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.5%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26