Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W51-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:95% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:88% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:71% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:80% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:37% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:88% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:69% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:57% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:37% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:49% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.2% | 91.0% |
| 6-2 | 22.0% | 28.7% |
| 5-3 | 30.0% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 24.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 11.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 15.2% (+0.0%) | 15.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.0% (-0.1%) | 15.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 15.2% (+0.0%) | 15.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 15.2% (-0.0%) | 15.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.5% (+0.3%) | 15.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.3% (+0.2%) | 15.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.4% (+0.2%) | 15.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 15.3% (+0.2%) | 15.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 15.0% (-0.2%) | 15.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 14.5% (-0.7%) | 15.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.1% (-0.0%) | 15.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.0% (-0.2%) | 15.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.3% (+0.2%) | 15.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 15.3% (+0.2%) | 15.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 14.9% (-0.2%) | 15.3% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.0%Any 1 loss
91.6%
6.4%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.3%
0.4%
97.3%
0.1%
94.4%
0.7%
92.0%
0.4%
91.0%
0.3%
91.0%
0.9%
90.1%
1.6%
88.7%
1.6%Any 2 losses
35.6%
18.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%98.1%
0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.7%
0.1%93.9%
<0.1%91.5%
0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
0.2%90.2%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%84.7%
0.2%84.6%
0.2%82.1%
<0.1%81.7%
0.1%59.6%
0.1%57.6%
<0.1%56.4%
0.2%54.7%
<0.1%52.4%
0.3%52.0%
0.1%48.7%
0.2%45.8%
0.1%43.5%
<0.1%43.2%
0.5%43.2%
<0.1%42.8%
0.2%42.6%
0.3%39.3%
0.5%39.1%
0.2%38.1%
0.8%34.9%
0.7%34.7%
0.4%31.2%
0.8%30.6%
0.2%28.7%
0.7%27.3%
1.3%26.7%
1.2%25.8%
0.7%24.8%
1.8%23.2%
1.7%21.8%
0.4%14.2%
2.8%Any 3 losses
25.4%
6.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.3%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.3%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%38.3%
0.1%38.1%
<0.1%36.9%
0.1%35.6%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.8%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.8%
0.2%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%28.1%
0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.9%
<0.1%27.4%
0.2%26.7%
<0.1%26.5%
0.2%26.3%
<0.1%26.3%
0.2%26.1%
<0.1%26.0%
<0.1%26.0%
0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.4%
0.2%23.9%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
0.3%20.8%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
0.1%14.9%
0.3%13.6%
0.4%2.4%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Any 4 losses
15.7%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02