Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W69-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:70% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:98% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:29% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:80% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:86% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:25% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:72% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:89% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:11% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:90% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 99.7% |
| 7-1 | 4.6% | 74.1% |
| 6-2 | 20.6% | 4.6% |
| 5-3 | 37.6% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 26.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 8.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 4.5% (-0.2%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.8% (+0.1%) | 4.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.8% (+0.1%) | 4.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.8% (+0.1%) | 4.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.6% (-0.1%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.6% (-0.1%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.7% (-0.0%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.7% (-0.1%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.8% (+0.1%) | 4.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.5% (-0.2%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.9% (+0.2%) | 4.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.8% (+0.1%) | 4.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.6% (-0.1%) | 4.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.7% (-0.0%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.7% (-0.0%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
74.7%
3.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%86.0%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%80.3%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%77.9%
0.6%77.1%
0.5%69.8%
1.8%Any 2 losses
11.4%
15.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.5%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%73.4%
0.3%73.1%
0.7%61.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.7%
0.1%11.7%
0.2%10.6%
0.2%9.7%
0.2%8.9%
0.7%8.9%
0.2%8.7%
0.5%8.6%
<0.1%8.4%
0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
0.3%4.6%
0.1%3.7%
5.1%3.2%
1.4%3.0%
4.0%Any 3 losses
4.9%
6.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
0.1%11.1%
0.3%11.1%
<0.1%10.6%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
0.2%7.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.8%
2.3%3.7%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.8%
0.6%2.1%
0.2%1.8%
1.8%0.6%
0.2%Any 4 losses
4.2%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02