Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:85% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:67% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:53% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:72% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:62% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:9% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:29% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:55% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 98.2% |
| 8-1 | 1.0% | 57.3% |
| 7-2 | 6.2% | 5.8% |
| 6-3 | 17.2% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 26.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 25.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 15.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.1%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.1%) | 1.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.1%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.1%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.1%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
97.5%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
58.3%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%46.7%
0.5%Any 2 losses
8.3%
5.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.3%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.6%
0.1%19.3%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
0.3%5.9%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.4%3.5%
0.2%3.3%
0.6%3.0%
0.2%2.3%
0.4%1.9%
1.2%1.8%
0.3%Any 3 losses
6.2%
1.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
0.2%1.9%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Any 4 losses
24.3%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02