Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-22 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:71% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:22% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:26% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:29% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:29% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:34% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:26% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.6% | 82.9% |
| 6-2 | 3.8% | 23.6% |
| 5-3 | 13.6% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 27.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 32.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 18.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.2%) | 1.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (-0.0%) | 1.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.6% (+0.1%) | 1.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (+0.1%) | 1.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.0%) | 1.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (-0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
84.4%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
46.7%
1.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
20.3%
3.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.0%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.6%
0.1%26.6%
0.1%25.4%
0.2%24.8%
0.1%23.9%
0.2%23.6%
0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.1%
0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%21.2%
0.1%19.9%
0.2%18.4%
0.1%16.9%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%13.3%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Any 4 losses
9.8%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.5%
0.4%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08