Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W51-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W16-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-19 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:41% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:22% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:82% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:46% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:50% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:31% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:49% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.2% | 95.2% |
| 6-2 | 9.6% | 24.7% |
| 5-3 | 22.5% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 30.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 23.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 9.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7% (+0.0%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.1% (+0.5%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.8% (+0.1%) | 4.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (-3.2%) | 9.2% (+4.6%) | |
| 4.7% (+0.0%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.7% (+0.0%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.7% (+0.0%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.7% (+0.1%) | 4.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.7% (+0.0%) | 4.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.5% (-0.1%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UL Monroe
UCLA
Georgia Southern
Bowling GreenCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaCCG: 9.2% • Scenario: 41.1%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
95.3%
2.0%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.8%
<0.1%
97.7%
0.2%
97.2%
0.2%
96.5%
0.2%
95.2%
0.4%
94.0%
0.6%
93.0%
0.3%Any 2 losses
26.3%
8.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%94.2%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%47.5%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%42.9%
0.1%42.2%
<0.1%41.7%
0.2%38.7%
0.2%37.0%
<0.1%35.6%
0.2%35.4%
<0.1%32.2%
0.1%30.6%
0.2%29.8%
0.3%29.2%
0.1%28.3%
0.3%28.0%
0.5%27.8%
0.4%27.7%
0.6%26.4%
0.7%25.7%
0.4%24.2%
0.2%21.3%
0.8%17.6%
0.6%15.9%
0.9%13.9%
1.4%Any 3 losses
18.8%
1.3%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.0%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%19.0%
<0.1%17.1%
0.2%16.5%
0.1%15.7%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15