Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W50-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L24-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:63% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:79% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:45% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:62% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:12% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:78% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:69% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:22% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 83.9% |
| 7-2 | 2.7% | 20.3% |
| 6-3 | 13.4% | 0.2% |
| 5-4 | 28.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 30.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 17.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.8% (+0.1%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.4%) | 0.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.1%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.1%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.3%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
84.4%
0.2%Any 1 loss
20.6%
2.4%80.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
0.1%33.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.9%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
0.6%12.6%
1.3%Any 2 losses
2.9%
2.6%58.3%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.8%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.5%
0.4%0.5%
0.6%0.5%
0.8%0.5%
0.2%Any 3 losses
1.6%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15