Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
51.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W24-14 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W37-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W49-14 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:94% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:97% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:49% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:97% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:94% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:51% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:87% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:89% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 13.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 35.0% | 88.0% |
| 7-2 | 33.8% | 21.1% |
| 6-3 | 14.2% | 0.3% |
| 5-4 | 3.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 55.1% (+3.8%) | 51.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 57.8% (+6.5%) | 50.7% (-0.6%) | |
| 53.2% (+1.9%) | 50.9% (-0.4%) | |
| 51.9% (+0.7%) | 50.4% (-0.9%) | |
| 51.0% (-0.3%) | 59.0% (+7.7%) | |
| 52.9% (+1.6%) | 26.9% (-24.4%) | |
| 51.1% (-0.2%) | 51.8% (+0.5%) | |
| 51.2% (-0.1%) | 51.4% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Minnesota
Illinois
Wisconsin
Michigan StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OregonCCG: 52.9% • Scenario: 93.7%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
13.3%Any 1 loss
88.0%
35.0%98.4%
1.6%
98.1%
2.0%
97.6%
0.9%97.4%
0.4%96.9%
0.8%
93.8%
2.9%
92.4%
0.4%
85.2%
12.3%
85.1%
13.8%Any 2 losses
21.1%
33.8%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%72.1%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%59.5%
0.1%59.2%
0.2%59.2%
<0.1%56.4%
0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%55.7%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.3%
0.1%48.8%
<0.1%46.9%
0.1%43.2%
0.2%40.5%
0.4%39.8%
0.1%39.8%
0.2%38.2%
0.4%33.6%
0.8%31.8%
0.4%30.3%
1.5%29.8%
0.5%28.4%
1.7%27.7%
0.9%27.4%
0.8%27.4%
0.5%27.0%
1.8%25.8%
0.4%24.1%
2.1%23.2%
0.9%17.7%
2.7%12.9%
3.1%12.5%
13.2%Any 3 losses
1.4%
2.0%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.2%0.7%
0.4%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22