Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W44-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W49-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W26-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:25% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:36% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:54% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:68% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:15% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:61% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:21% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:54% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:56% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.4% | 41.9% |
| 7-2 | 2.4% | 3.8% |
| 6-3 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 20.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 23.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 11.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 3.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.2%) | 0.9% (+0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Minnesota
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan State
PurdueCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
RutgersCCG: 0.9% • Scenario: 25.4%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
41.7%
0.3%
52.9%
<0.1%
48.4%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%
41.9%
<0.1%
40.4%
0.1%38.5%
<0.1%
27.8%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%
20.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
4.1%
2.3%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%6.1%
0.2%5.1%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.5%
0.4%3.5%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.3%
0.2%0.6%
0.3%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22