Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-9 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-24 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W24-5 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:75% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:37% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:62% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:66% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:57% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:25% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:89% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:18% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.0% | 90.5% |
| 7-2 | 13.1% | 27.0% |
| 6-3 | 27.4% | 0.2% |
| 5-4 | 30.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 18.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 6.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.4% (+0.8%) | 6.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.8% (+0.2%) | 6.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.6% (+0.0%) | 6.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.4% (-0.1%) | 6.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.5% (-0.1%) | 8.2% (+1.7%) | |
| 6.4% (-0.1%) | 8.7% (+2.1%) | |
| 6.6% (+0.0%) | 6.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 8.0% (+1.4%) | 2.4% (-4.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Maryland
UCLA
Purdue
RutgersCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WashingtonCCG: 8.0% • Scenario: 74.6%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
90.5%
3.0%100.0%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%
97.5%
0.2%
97.2%
0.1%
95.8%
0.2%
90.3%
0.8%
88.0%
1.1%
87.6%
0.4%Any 2 losses
27.0%
13.2%92.3%
<0.1%78.5%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%68.5%
<0.1%68.5%
<0.1%61.9%
0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%49.6%
0.3%45.2%
<0.1%45.1%
0.4%42.4%
0.1%41.3%
0.4%39.2%
0.5%37.8%
<0.1%37.0%
0.6%36.0%
0.1%35.4%
0.3%33.4%
1.0%32.6%
0.7%31.0%
0.2%28.5%
0.6%27.8%
0.3%18.8%
1.4%16.6%
3.6%14.4%
2.0%Any 3 losses
1.2%
2.8%20.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.3%
0.3%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.6%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.6%
0.3%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22