IllinoisFighting Illini

4-0 T1st (1-0) in B1G

Data from 2024-09-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsEastern IllinoisEIU	W45-0
2	9/07	vsKansasKU	W23-17
3	9/14	vsCentral MichiganCMU	W30-9
4	9/20	@NebraskaNEB	W31-24
5	9/28	@Penn StatePSU	Win prob:9%
7	10/12	vsPurduePUR	Win prob:82%
8	10/19	vsMichiganMICH	Win prob:15%
9	10/26	@OregonORE	Win prob:6%
10	11/02	vsMinnesotaMINN	Win prob:65%
12	11/16	vsMichigan StateMSU	Win prob:74%
13	11/23	@RutgersRUTG	Win prob:46%
14	11/30	vsNorthwesternNU(N)	Win prob:58%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.0%	100.0%
8-1	0.3%	72.8%
7-2	3.3%	8.0%
6-3	16.3%	0.0%
5-4	32.4%	0%
4-5	30.1%	0%
3-6	14.1%	0%
2-7	3.3%	0%
1-8	0.3%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

48.9%

23.4%

14.9%

10.6%

2.1%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MinnesotaMINN@MichiganMICH	0.8% (+0.3%)	0.5% (-0.0%)
IllinoisILL@Penn StatePSU	3.2% (+2.7%)	0.2% (-0.3%)
WisconsinWIS@USCUSC	0.5% (+0.0%)	0.5% (-0.0%)
MarylandMD@IndianaIU	0.5% (+0.0%)	0.5% (-0.0%)
Ohio StateOSU@Michigan StateMSU	0.5% (-0.0%)	1.1% (+0.6%)
OregonORE@UCLAUCLA	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.8% (+0.3%)
NebraskaNEB@PurduePUR	0.5% (+0.0%)	0.4% (-0.1%)
WashingtonWASH@RutgersRUTG	0.5% (+0.0%)	0.5% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Minnesota

Illinois

Wisconsin

Maryland

Michigan State

CCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Illinois

CCG: 3.2% • Scenario: 8.8%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

73.1%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

72.1%

0.1%

70.3%

<0.1%

69.9%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

7.9%

3.3%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

26.7%

<0.1%

25.6%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

23.3%

0.1%

21.7%

<0.1%

20.0%

0.1%

17.8%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

13.6%

0.1%

11.5%

<0.1%

8.2%

<0.1%

6.9%

<0.1%

4.7%

1.3%

4.5%

0.4%

3.4%

0.8%

20.0%

<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com