Big Ten Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-22
Conference Standings
| T1 |  MichiganMICH | 1-0 | 3-1 | 35.7% | |
| T1 |  WashingtonWASH | 1-0 | 3-1 | 6.6% | |
| T1 |  IowaIOWA | 1-0 | 3-1 | 1.9% | |
| T1 |  IndianaIU | 1-0 | 4-0 | 1.0% | |
| T1 |  IllinoisILL | 1-0 | 4-0 | 0.5% | |
| T1 |  Michigan StateMSU | 1-0 | 3-1 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  Ohio StateOSU | 0-0 | 3-0 | 65.3% | |
| T7 |  OregonORE | 0-0 | 3-0 | 51.3% | |
| T7 |  Penn StatePSU | 0-0 | 3-0 | 33.6% | |
| T7 |  USCUSC | 0-1 | 2-1 | 3.0% | |
| T7 |  MarylandMD | 0-1 | 3-1 | 0.6% | |
| T7 |  RutgersRUTG | 0-0 | 3-0 | 0.3% | |
| T7 |  WisconsinWIS | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0.2% | |
| T7 |  NebraskaNEB | 0-1 | 3-1 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  NorthwesternNU | 0-1 | 2-2 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  MinnesotaMINN | 0-1 | 2-2 | - | |
| T7 |  PurduePUR | 0-0 | 1-2 | - | |
| T7 |  UCLAUCLA | 0-1 | 1-2 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 65.3%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 68.6% (+3.3%) | 65.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 66.3% (+1.0%) | 65.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 65.8% (+0.4%) | 65.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 64.9% (-0.4%) | 65.8% (+0.5%) | |
| 66.3% (+1.0%) | 39.5% (-25.8%) | |
| 65.1% (-0.2%) | 68.3% (+3.0%) | |
| 65.5% (+0.2%) | 64.8% (-0.5%) | |
| 64.8% (-0.6%) | 67.0% (+1.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
MinnesotaIllinoisWisconsinIndianaMichigan StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Ohio StateCCG: 66.3% • Scenario: 96.2%
Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio StateOSU | 100% | 97.7% | 29.0% | 0.5% | 65.3% |
| OregonORE | 100% | 88.0% | 21.1% | 0.3% | 51.3% |
| MichiganMICH | 100% | 91.8% | 25.1% | 0.5% | 35.7% |
| Penn StatePSU | 100% | 67.9% | 13.1% | <0.1% | 33.6% |
| WashingtonWASH | 100% | 90.5% | 27.0% | 0.2% | 6.6% |
| USCUSC | - | 62.8% | 6.8% | <0.1% | 3.0% |
| IowaIOWA | 99.2% | 49.5% | 4.1% | <0.1% | 1.9% |
| IndianaIU | 96.2% | 65.4% | 7.4% | <0.1% | 1.0% |
| MarylandMD | - | 86.2% | 15.9% | <0.1% | 0.6% |
| IllinoisILL | 100% | 72.8% | 8.0% | <0.1% | 0.5% |
| RutgersRUTG | 100% | 41.9% | 3.8% | - | 0.3% |
| WisconsinWIS | 100% | 58.1% | 8.1% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| NebraskaNEB | - | 80.8% | 5.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Michigan StateMSU | - | 100% | 22.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| NorthwesternNU | - | - | 23.8% | - | <0.1% |
| MinnesotaMINN | - | 100% | 7.7% | - | - |
| PurduePUR | - | - | 33.3% | - | - |
| UCLAUCLA | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-09-22
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio StateOSU(0-0) | 17.7% | 39.6% | 30.4% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.6 |
| OregonORE(0-0) | 13.3% | 35.0% | 33.8% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.4 |
| Penn StatePSU(0-0) | 9.1% | 29.5% | 34.2% | 19.7% | 6.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.1 |
| MichiganMICH(1-0) | 4.6% | 23.5% | 37.4% | 25.2% | 8.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.9 |
| USCUSC(0-1) | - | 3.1% | 15.6% | 30.2% | 29.4% | 15.7% | 5.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.4 |
| WashingtonWASH(1-0) | 0.2% | 3.0% | 13.1% | 27.4% | 30.6% | 18.4% | 6.1% | 1.0% | <0.1% | - | 5.3 |
| IowaIOWA(1-0) | 0.1% | 2.5% | 12.3% | 26.7% | 30.3% | 19.5% | 7.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | - | 5.2 |
| IndianaIU(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 6.1% | 19.9% | 31.6% | 26.6% | 12.1% | 2.6% | 0.2% | - | 4.8 |
| IllinoisILL(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 16.3% | 32.4% | 30.1% | 14.1% | 3.3% | 0.3% | - | 4.5 |
| MarylandMD(0-1) | - | 0.2% | 2.7% | 13.8% | 28.6% | 30.4% | 17.7% | 5.5% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 4.3 |
| RutgersRUTG(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 9.3% | 20.7% | 28.1% | 23.6% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 3.9 |
| NebraskaNEB(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.8% | 5.8% | 18.9% | 30.7% | 27.2% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 3.7 |
| WisconsinWIS(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 6.3% | 18.0% | 29.0% | 27.1% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 0.4% | 3.7 |
| Michigan StateMSU(1-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 9.0% | 24.8% | 35.5% | 23.7% | 5.4% | - | 3.1 |
| NorthwesternNU(0-1) | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 12.8% | 27.6% | 32.5% | 19.2% | 4.3% | 2.4 |
| MinnesotaMINN(0-1) | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 12.3% | 25.8% | 31.4% | 20.6% | 5.7% | 2.3 |
| UCLAUCLA(0-1) | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 5.8% | 18.8% | 33.1% | 30.3% | 10.9% | 1.8 |
| PurduePUR(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 14.1% | 30.2% | 34.8% | 16.6% | 1.6 |
Data from 2024-09-22