Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:73% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:64% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:39% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:5% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:73% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:19% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:60% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 80.8% |
| 7-2 | 0.8% | 5.5% |
| 6-3 | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 18.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 30.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 27.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 13.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 1.6% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 66.6%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
80.8%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
5.3%
0.8%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%5.3%
0.1%1.5%
0.5%2.2%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22