Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W34-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/19 | Win prob:36% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:29% | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:31% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:17% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:35% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:5% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:6% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 92.3% |
| 7-2 | 0.2% | 19.4% |
| 6-3 | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 8.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 20.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 30.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 26.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 10.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 1.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
80.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
18.7%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
2.5%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07