LSUTigers

3-0 T1st (1-0) in SEC

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

5.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@ClemsonCLEM	W17-10
2	9/06	vsLouisiana TechLT	W23-7
3	9/13	vsFloridaFLA	W20-10
4	9/20	vsSE LouisianaSELA	Win prob:90%
5	9/27	@Ole MissMISS	Win prob:20%
7	10/11	vsSouth CarolinaSC	Win prob:59%
8	10/18	@VanderbiltVAN	Win prob:65%
9	10/25	vsTexas A&MTA&M	Win prob:59%
11	11/08	@AlabamaALA	Win prob:20%
12	11/15	vsArkansasARK	Win prob:66%
13	11/22	vsWestern KentuckyWKU	Win prob:91%
14	11/29	@OklahomaOU	Win prob:50%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.3%	100.0%
7-1	3.4%	75.1%
6-2	14.6%	14.3%
5-3	28.6%	0.1%
4-4	30.1%	0%
3-5	17.3%	0%
2-6	5.1%	0%
1-7	0.6%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

66.4%

13.4%

10.5%

8.5%

1.2%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
South CarolinaSC@MissouriMIZ	5.3% (+0.3%)	4.6% (-0.3%)
AuburnAUB@OklahomaOU	4.8% (-0.2%)	5.1% (+0.1%)
Northern IllinoisNIU@Mississippi StateMSST	5.0% (-0.0%)	5.0% (+0.0%)
SE LouisianaSELA@LSULSU	4.7% (-0.2%)	5.0% (+0.0%)
UABUAB@TennesseeTENN	4.5% (-0.5%)	5.0% (+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Ole MissMISS	5.0% (+0.0%)	5.0% (+0.0%)
Sam HoustonSHSU@TexasTEX	4.1% (-0.9%)	5.0% (+0.0%)
ArkansasARK@MemphisMEM	5.0% (+0.1%)	4.9% (-0.1%)
FloridaFLA@MiamiMIA	4.8% (-0.1%)	5.0% (+0.1%)
Georgia StateGAST@VanderbiltVAN	5.0% (+0.0%)	5.0% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Missouri

SE Louisiana

Tulane

Sam Houston

Arkansas

Florida

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

South Carolina

Tennessee

Texas

CCG: 5.3% • Scenario: 48.7%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.3%

Any 1 loss

76.0%

2.8%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

95.6%

0.2%

83.0%

0.1%

78.0%

0.1%

77.0%

0.9%

76.2%

0.1%

70.4%

1.0%

69.6%

0.3%

Any 2 losses

17.1%

12.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

84.6%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

78.3%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

73.2%

0.1%

71.6%

0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

70.0%

0.1%

69.0%

<0.1%

68.0%

0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

43.1%

0.1%

39.0%

0.1%

33.3%

0.1%

30.2%

<0.1%

29.9%

0.1%

27.0%

<0.1%

22.6%

0.2%

21.4%

0.1%

20.6%

0.7%

20.2%

0.5%

19.5%

<0.1%

19.1%

0.7%

18.7%

0.2%

16.2%

0.7%

15.8%

0.7%

15.1%

0.5%

14.2%

0.5%

12.6%

1.0%

11.6%

0.9%

10.4%

0.5%

9.3%

4.0%

Any 3 losses

9.5%

3.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

90.9%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

46.2%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

35.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

29.6%

<0.1%

29.1%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

26.9%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

23.1%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

20.8%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

17.9%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

15.5%

<0.1%

15.5%

<0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.0%

<0.1%

13.7%

<0.1%

12.9%

<0.1%

12.8%

<0.1%

11.8%

<0.1%

11.1%

0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.2%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.9%

0.4%

9.1%

0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.4%

0.4%

5.5%

<0.1%

3.3%

<0.1%

1.9%

<0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.6%

0.3%

0.6%

0.3%

0.5%

0.4%

Any 4 losses

6.0%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

18.2%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

5.1%

<0.1%

2.6%

<0.1%

2.4%

<0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com