Kansas StateWildcats
2-0 T2nd (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.1%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Kansas State's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Kansas State has a 19.1% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Kansas State's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W71-3 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W34-7 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:88% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:49% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:64% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:85% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:61% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:81% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:73% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:74% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.5% | 98.3% |
| 8-1 | 12.0% | 77.7% |
| 7-2 | 24.5% | 27.8% |
| 6-3 | 28.1% | 1.5% |
| 5-4 | 20.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 22.8% (+3.7%) | 18.0% (-1.0%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 18.9% (-0.1%) | 19.3% (+0.2%) | ||
| 19.4% (+0.4%) | 19.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 19.1% (+0.0%) | 19.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 18.8% (-0.3%) | 19.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 18.9% (-0.2%) | 19.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 19.3% (+0.3%) | 19.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 19.0% (-0.1%) | 19.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 19.1% (+0.0%) | 19.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 19.1% (+0.0%) | 19.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 19.1% (+0.0%) | 19.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 19.2% (+0.1%) | 19.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 19.5% (+0.4%) | 19.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 18.3% (-0.8%) | 19.1% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.3%
2.2%Any 1 loss
78.3%
10.9%
98.2%
0.3%
84.8%
0.8%
84.6%
0.4%
83.7%
0.5%
81.1%
1.3%
80.6%
1.4%
75.1%
0.8%
74.8%
1.3%
74.8%
1.7%
73.6%
2.3%Any 2 losses
30.9%
23.0%84.9%
0.1%83.8%
<0.1%83.5%
<0.1%80.9%
0.2%80.7%
0.2%75.8%
0.1%75.8%
0.2%75.7%
0.2%73.8%
0.3%44.8%
<0.1%44.7%
0.3%43.6%
0.2%43.0%
0.1%41.4%
0.3%40.3%
0.5%39.0%
0.2%38.5%
0.5%38.0%
0.3%35.5%
0.2%34.9%
0.8%34.7%
0.3%34.3%
0.1%32.6%
0.4%32.5%
0.3%32.2%
0.4%31.9%
0.2%31.4%
0.6%31.4%
0.8%29.6%
0.5%29.0%
0.6%29.0%
0.5%28.7%
0.8%28.5%
0.8%28.3%
0.4%28.2%
0.3%26.8%
1.1%25.8%
1.0%25.5%
1.5%25.1%
1.4%22.8%
0.5%22.7%
0.9%22.1%
0.6%19.5%
1.0%19.1%
1.8%17.8%
1.3%Any 3 losses
4.4%
26.4%47.8%
<0.1%45.9%
<0.1%45.7%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.3%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.8%
<0.1%37.7%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.5%
<0.1%34.7%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.1%
0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.2%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.3%
0.1%29.9%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.4%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%25.6%
0.1%25.1%
0.2%24.7%
0.1%24.4%
0.1%24.1%
0.2%23.5%
0.1%22.6%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%19.7%
0.1%19.2%
0.3%18.4%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.3%2.8%
0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.4%2.6%
0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.5%
0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.4%2.3%
0.3%2.1%
0.2%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.5%2.0%
0.3%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
0.3%1.9%
0.3%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
0.3%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.3%1.7%
0.3%1.6%
0.2%1.6%
0.5%1.5%
0.9%1.5%
0.4%1.5%
0.5%1.5%
0.4%1.4%
0.3%1.4%
0.2%1.4%
0.3%1.4%
0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
0.2%1.2%
0.6%1.1%
0.6%1.1%
1.1%1.1%
0.5%1.1%
0.4%1.1%
0.6%1.1%
0.3%1.0%
0.2%1.0%
0.5%1.0%
0.6%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
0.8%0.8%
0.5%0.8%
0.2%0.8%
0.3%0.8%
0.8%0.8%
0.6%0.8%
<0.1%0.7%
0.4%0.6%
0.5%0.6%
1.1%Any 4 losses
1.4%
3.2%14.3%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%0.5%
0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17