Kansas StateWildcats
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Kansas State's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Kansas State has a 7.5% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Kansas State's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:75% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:62% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:51% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:45% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:45% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:51% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 99.5% |
| 8-1 | 1.8% | 93.7% |
| 7-2 | 7.5% | 57.1% |
| 6-3 | 17.3% | 7.5% |
| 5-4 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 24.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 15.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 6.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 7.5% (+0.0%) | 7.4% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
98.9%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
94.2%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.5%
0.1%94.2%
<0.1%92.0%
0.1%91.3%
0.1%85.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
63.2%
4.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.6%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.3%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.6%
0.1%67.3%
<0.1%63.2%
0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%61.2%
0.1%59.5%
<0.1%58.5%
0.1%58.2%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.8%
0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.4%
<0.1%54.9%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%52.5%
0.1%51.5%
0.1%51.2%
<0.1%51.1%
0.2%50.9%
<0.1%50.0%
0.1%49.5%
0.1%49.5%
0.1%48.1%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%45.3%
0.1%43.6%
0.1%43.1%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
24.6%
10.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.2%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.2%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.3%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.2%
<0.1%61.0%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.9%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.8%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%57.4%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%55.1%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.2%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.5%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%51.1%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%10.9%
0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
0.2%7.6%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
0.2%7.1%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.7%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
0.2%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.1%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.6%
0.2%5.5%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Any 4 losses
13.9%
7.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26