ArizonaWildcats
1-1 T2nd (0-1) in B12
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.2%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Arizona's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Arizona has a 1.2% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Arizona's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W35-7 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L17-28 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:99% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:83% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:50% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:58% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:74% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:15% | |
| 10 | 11/06 | Win prob:57% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:29% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:62% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 98.7% |
| 7-2 | 1.2% | 56.0% |
| 6-3 | 6.9% | 5.8% |
| 5-4 | 19.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 26.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 13.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 3.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 1.4% (+0.2%) | 1.1% (-0.1%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 1.1% (-0.1%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.2% (-0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.2% (-0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.3% (+0.1%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.2% (-0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.2% (-0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.3% (+0.1%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.7%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
56.9%
1.0%
100.0%
<0.1%
98.7%
<0.1%
76.5%
<0.1%
69.8%
<0.1%
63.8%
<0.1%
63.3%
0.2%
63.1%
<0.1%
61.9%
<0.1%
52.4%
0.2%
48.1%
0.4%Any 2 losses
7.8%
5.8%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%10.8%
0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.7%
0.3%7.2%
0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.3%
0.3%5.9%
0.2%5.7%
0.5%5.3%
1.1%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
0.3%4.4%
0.4%4.4%
0.2%3.8%
1.0%3.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
5.2%
1.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.6%
0.2%4.4%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17