ArizonaWildcats
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Arizona's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Arizona has a 9.8% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Arizona's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:31% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:92% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:70% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:62% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:73% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:18% | ||
| 11/06 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:49% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:61% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.7% | 99.6% |
| 7-2 | 7.5% | 71.0% |
| 6-3 | 18.5% | 14.6% |
| 5-4 | 26.8% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 24.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 14.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 9.8% (-0.0%) | 9.9% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.9%
1.0%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.4%Any 2 losses
74.4%
4.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%80.6%
0.2%80.4%
0.1%79.3%
<0.1%78.8%
0.2%78.6%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%77.0%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.3%
0.1%74.7%
<0.1%74.0%
0.2%73.7%
0.1%72.2%
0.2%71.7%
0.1%71.7%
0.4%71.5%
0.1%69.8%
0.3%69.7%
0.1%67.6%
<0.1%65.7%
0.3%50.2%
0.8%Any 3 losses
26.4%
13.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%84.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.1%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.0%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%76.6%
0.1%76.0%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.6%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.9%
0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.4%
0.1%65.5%
<0.1%64.7%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.4%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.8%
0.4%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.7%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%27.4%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%26.5%
0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.8%
0.3%24.3%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%21.9%
0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.8%
0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.0%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.3%
0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.6%
0.1%18.5%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.8%
0.3%17.2%
0.2%17.1%
<0.1%16.9%
0.2%16.8%
<0.1%16.8%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.9%
0.3%15.5%
0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.6%
0.2%14.4%
0.2%14.4%
0.2%14.2%
0.1%13.0%
0.6%12.8%
0.2%12.6%
0.2%12.5%
0.9%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
0.1%11.9%
0.2%11.9%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.6%
0.3%10.2%
0.5%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
0.7%9.3%
0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.9%
0.5%8.8%
0.1%7.6%
0.6%7.5%
0.2%7.0%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
16.8%
7.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.8%
0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.3%
<0.1%19.2%
0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.5%
0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.3%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
0.2%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.6%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.5%
0.2%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.6%
0.2%9.4%
0.3%9.4%
<0.1%9.4%
0.4%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
0.3%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%Data from 2026-08-26