TCU

TCUHorned Frogs

2-0 T1st (0-0) in B12

Data from 2024-09-08 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

12.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

TCUSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/30
@StanfordSTAN
W34-27
29/07
vsLong Island UniversityLIU
W45-0
39/14
vsUCFUCF
Win prob:50%
49/21
@SMUSMU
Win prob:34%
59/28
vsKansasKU(N)
Win prob:48%
610/04
vsHoustonHOU
Win prob:79%
810/19
@UtahUTAH
Win prob:37%
910/26
vsTexas TechTTU
Win prob:71%
1011/02
@BaylorBAY
Win prob:66%
1111/09
vsOklahoma StOKST
Win prob:66%
1311/23
vsArizonaARIZ
Win prob:37%
1411/30
@CincinnatiCIN
Win prob:69%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

TCURecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.6%
100.0%
8-1
4.3%
95.1%
7-2
13.9%
49.6%
6-3
24.5%
4.3%
5-4
27.3%
0%
4-5
18.5%
0%
3-6
8.3%
0%
2-7
2.3%
0%
1-8
0.4%
0%
0-9
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely TCU CCG Opponents

if TCU makes the CCG

Kansas StateKansas St
51.4%
ArizonaArizona
25.5%
UCFUCF
8.9%
Iowa StateIowa St
7.2%
UtahUtah
7.0%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

TCUThis Week's Impact

Game
TCUCCG OddsAway
TCUCCG OddsHome
UCFUCF@TCUTCU
5.2%
(-7.4%)		19.9%
(+7.3%)
Arizona StASU@Texas StTXST
12.5%
(-0.1%)		12.6%
(+0.0%)
ArizonaARIZ@Kansas StKSU
12.5%
(-0.1%)		12.7%
(+0.1%)
BYUBYU@WyomingWYO
12.5%
(-0.1%)		12.7%
(+0.1%)
Oklahoma StOKST@TulsaTLSA
12.6%
(-0.0%)		12.7%
(+0.1%)
North TexasUNT@Texas TechTTU
12.7%
(+0.1%)		12.5%
(-0.1%)
Air ForceAF@BaylorBAY
12.5%
(-0.1%)		12.7%
(+0.1%)
CincinnatiCIN@Miami OHM-OH
12.7%
(+0.1%)		12.6%
(-0.0%)
UtahUTAH@Utah StUSU
12.6%
(+0.0%)		12.5%
(-0.1%)
ColoradoCOLO@Colorado StCSU
12.6%
(-0.0%)		12.6%
(+0.0%)
UNLVUNLV@KansasKU
12.5%
(-0.1%)		12.7%
(+0.1%)
RiceRICE@HoustonHOU
12.6%
(-0.0%)		12.6%
(+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@PittsburghPITT
12.5%
(-0.1%)		12.7%
(+0.1%)

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

TCULoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
TCU CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%
Any 1 loss
96.4%
1.9%
SMU
100.0%
0.4%
Baylor
100.0%
0.1%
Houston
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma St
99.0%
0.1%
Cincinnati
97.7%
<0.1%
Texas Tech
96.5%
<0.1%
Kansas
95.6%
0.2%
UCF
95.3%
0.2%
Utah
95.1%
0.3%
Arizona
91.6%
0.3%
Any 2 losses
66.8%
7.5%
BaylorSMU
98.9%
0.2%
SMUUCF
97.1%
0.4%
Oklahoma StSMU
97.1%
0.2%
CincinnatiSMU
97.0%
0.2%
SMUTexas Tech
95.6%
0.2%
SMUUtah
95.3%
0.7%
KansasSMU
95.0%
0.4%
HoustonSMU
94.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaSMU
90.0%
0.6%
BaylorHouston
86.4%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma St
75.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas Tech
75.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiTexas Tech
74.2%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas Tech
72.2%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma St
71.7%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas
70.5%
0.1%
BaylorCincinnati
68.1%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StTexas Tech
66.7%
<0.1%
Texas TechUCF
65.8%
<0.1%
KansasTexas Tech
64.6%
<0.1%
CincinnatiUtah
64.0%
0.1%
Texas TechUtah
63.4%
0.1%
BaylorUtah
63.4%
0.2%
CincinnatiKansas
62.6%
0.1%
BaylorUCF
61.9%
0.1%
KansasOklahoma St
59.6%
0.1%
CincinnatiHouston
56.5%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StUtah
55.6%
0.2%
Oklahoma StUCF
53.4%
<0.1%
HoustonOklahoma St
53.1%
<0.1%
HoustonUCF
52.9%
<0.1%
KansasUtah
51.9%
0.4%
ArizonaBaylor
51.4%
0.2%
HoustonUtah
50.6%
<0.1%
CincinnatiUCF
50.5%
<0.1%
KansasUCF
46.7%
0.2%
HoustonKansas
45.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaOklahoma St
44.6%
0.2%
UCFUtah
44.5%
0.3%
ArizonaCincinnati
44.4%
0.1%
ArizonaHouston
41.7%
0.1%
ArizonaKansas
41.2%
0.4%
ArizonaTexas Tech
40.0%
0.1%
ArizonaUtah
34.8%
0.5%
ArizonaUCF
34.8%
0.3%
Any 3 losses
28.0%
17.6%
BaylorCincinnatiSMU
79.2%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StSMU
76.0%
0.1%
BaylorHoustonSMU
73.5%
<0.1%
KansasSMUTexas Tech
68.5%
0.2%
HoustonSMUTexas Tech
67.6%
<0.1%
BaylorSMUTexas Tech
66.7%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StSMUTexas Tech
63.5%
<0.1%
CincinnatiSMUUtah
62.0%
0.3%
CincinnatiOklahoma StSMU
61.9%
<0.1%
KansasOklahoma StSMU
61.6%
0.2%
BaylorSMUUtah
61.5%
0.3%
SMUTexas TechUtah
60.9%
0.3%
BaylorSMUUCF
60.9%
0.2%
BaylorKansasSMU
60.7%
0.2%
CincinnatiSMUTexas Tech
60.3%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasSMU
59.4%
0.1%
CincinnatiKansasSMU
59.3%
0.2%
CincinnatiHoustonSMU
57.8%
<0.1%
HoustonOklahoma StSMU
57.5%
<0.1%
CincinnatiSMUUCF
57.2%
0.2%
Oklahoma StSMUUtah
56.5%
0.3%
Oklahoma StSMUUCF
56.3%
0.2%
ArizonaBaylorSMU
51.5%
0.3%
SMUTexas TechUCF
51.1%
0.1%
HoustonSMUUCF
51.0%
0.1%
HoustonSMUUtah
50.7%
0.1%
KansasSMUUtah
49.9%
0.7%
ArizonaOklahoma StSMU
48.5%
0.4%
ArizonaCincinnatiSMU
47.6%
0.3%
KansasSMUUCF
47.3%
0.4%
ArizonaSMUTexas Tech
43.8%
0.2%
SMUUCFUtah
42.9%
0.6%
ArizonaKansasSMU
39.0%
0.8%
ArizonaSMUUtah
35.7%
1.1%
ArizonaSMUUCF
34.0%
0.7%
ArizonaHoustonSMU
33.3%
0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiHouston
20.0%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonTexas Tech
15.4%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiOklahoma St
14.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonOklahoma St
11.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorCincinnati
11.1%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonUCF
11.1%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasTexas Tech
10.6%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiUCF
10.5%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonKansas
10.0%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiKansas
10.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorHouston
9.7%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StTexas TechUtah
9.5%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StUtah
9.0%
0.1%
BaylorTexas TechUCF
8.9%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasOklahoma St
8.8%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonKansas
8.7%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasUtah
8.6%
0.2%
HoustonOklahoma StTexas Tech
8.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansasOklahoma St
8.3%
<0.1%
KansasOklahoma StTexas Tech
8.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorOklahoma St
8.1%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasUCF
7.9%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StUCF
7.7%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonOklahoma St
7.7%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StTexas Tech
7.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonTexas Tech
7.3%
<0.1%
KansasTexas TechUtah
7.1%
0.1%
KansasOklahoma StUCF
7.0%
0.1%
ArizonaCincinnatiTexas Tech
7.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma StTexas Tech
6.9%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas TechUtah
6.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonOklahoma St
6.7%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiUtah
6.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansasUtah
6.3%
0.2%
CincinnatiOklahoma StUtah
6.2%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansasTexas Tech
6.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonUtah
6.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansasTexas Tech
6.0%
0.1%
HoustonKansasUCF
6.0%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonUtah
5.9%
<0.1%
KansasTexas TechUCF
5.6%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma StUCF
5.6%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiTexas Tech
5.6%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonUCF
5.5%
<0.1%
HoustonOklahoma StUtah
4.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansasOklahoma St
4.7%
0.2%
ArizonaCincinnatiOklahoma St
4.7%
<0.1%
BaylorUCFUtah
4.5%
0.2%
ArizonaBaylorKansas
4.3%
0.2%
ArizonaCincinnatiKansas
4.3%
0.2%
CincinnatiKansasUCF
4.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaTexas TechUtah
4.2%
0.2%
CincinnatiUCFUtah
4.1%
0.1%
ArizonaBaylorTexas Tech
4.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas TechUtah
4.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaOklahoma StUCF
4.0%
0.1%
Texas TechUCFUtah
3.8%
0.1%
HoustonTexas TechUCF
3.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiTexas TechUCF
3.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansasUCF
3.3%
0.3%
ArizonaOklahoma StUtah
3.1%
0.3%
KansasOklahoma StUtah
3.1%
0.2%
ArizonaBaylorUtah
3.0%
0.3%
HoustonKansasOklahoma St
3.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonKansas
2.9%
0.1%
ArizonaKansasUtah
2.8%
0.6%
Oklahoma StTexas TechUCF
2.7%
<0.1%
HoustonUCFUtah
2.6%
<0.1%
KansasUCFUtah
2.5%
0.4%
ArizonaTexas TechUCF
2.5%
0.1%
ArizonaCincinnatiHouston
2.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaUCFUtah
2.2%
0.5%
ArizonaHoustonUtah
2.1%
0.1%
ArizonaCincinnatiUCF
2.0%
0.1%
Oklahoma StUCFUtah
1.9%
0.1%
ArizonaCincinnatiUtah
1.9%
0.3%
ArizonaBaylorUCF
1.7%
0.2%
ArizonaOklahoma StTexas Tech
1.5%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasUtah
1.0%
0.1%
Any 4 losses
4.2%
15.9%
CincinnatiHoustonOklahoma StSMU
22.7%
<0.1%
HoustonOklahoma StSMUTexas Tech
14.3%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiSMUUtah
13.8%
0.1%
BaylorHoustonOklahoma StSMU
13.8%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansasSMUTexas Tech
13.0%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiHoustonSMU
12.5%
<0.1%
BaylorSMUTexas TechUCF
11.5%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiKansasSMU
11.2%
0.1%
CincinnatiKansasOklahoma StSMU
11.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonSMUTexas Tech
10.5%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiSMUTexas Tech
9.7%
<0.1%
KansasOklahoma StSMUTexas Tech
9.6%
<0.1%
BaylorSMUTexas TechUtah
9.6%
0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiOklahoma StSMU
9.3%
<0.1%
HoustonSMUTexas TechUtah
9.2%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StSMUTexas TechUCF
9.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonSMUUCF
9.1%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StSMUUtah
8.9%
0.2%
CincinnatiOklahoma StSMUTexas Tech
8.8%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasOklahoma StSMU
8.3%
0.1%
CincinnatiKansasSMUUtah
7.8%
0.3%
BaylorCincinnatiSMUUCF
7.7%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StSMUTexas Tech
7.7%
<0.1%
SMUTexas TechUCFUtah
7.4%
0.3%
HoustonOklahoma StSMUUtah
7.2%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasOklahoma StSMU
7.0%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasSMUUtah
6.9%
0.3%
BaylorOklahoma StSMUUCF
6.6%
<0.1%
CincinnatiSMUTexas TechUCF
6.5%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasSMUTexas Tech
6.2%
<0.1%
HoustonSMUTexas TechUCF
6.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonKansasSMU
6.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma StSMUUCF
5.9%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonKansasSMU
5.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorHoustonSMU
5.7%
<0.1%
KansasOklahoma StSMUUtah
5.4%
0.4%
ArizonaOklahoma StSMUTexas Tech
5.4%
0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonSMUUtah
5.4%
<0.1%
ArizonaCincinnatiHoustonSMU
5.2%
<0.1%
KansasSMUTexas TechUtah
5.1%
0.3%
ArizonaBaylorSMUTexas Tech
5.0%
0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma StSMUUtah
5.0%
0.1%
BaylorKansasSMUUCF
5.0%
0.2%
HoustonKansasSMUUtah
4.8%
0.2%
ArizonaCincinnatiSMUUtah
4.8%
0.5%
BaylorHoustonSMUTexas Tech
4.8%
<0.1%
CincinnatiSMUTexas TechUtah
4.8%
0.1%
ArizonaBaylorKansasSMU
4.7%
0.4%
CincinnatiKansasSMUUCF
4.5%
0.2%
ArizonaCincinnatiKansasSMU
4.3%
0.3%
ArizonaCincinnatiOklahoma StSMU
4.3%
0.1%
ArizonaKansasSMUTexas Tech
4.2%
0.3%
HoustonOklahoma StSMUUCF
4.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorSMUUtah
3.9%
0.5%
Oklahoma StSMUTexas TechUtah
3.7%
0.1%
Oklahoma StSMUUCFUtah
3.7%
0.3%
KansasSMUUCFUtah
3.6%
0.7%
ArizonaKansasOklahoma StSMU
3.5%
0.3%
ArizonaOklahoma StSMUUtah
3.2%
0.6%
ArizonaKansasSMUUCF
3.2%
0.7%
ArizonaCincinnatiSMUUCF
3.2%
0.3%
ArizonaSMUTexas TechUtah
3.0%
0.4%
HoustonSMUUCFUtah
2.9%
0.2%
ArizonaBaylorCincinnatiSMU
2.9%
0.1%
KansasSMUTexas TechUCF
2.6%
0.1%
ArizonaHoustonSMUUCF
2.6%
0.1%
HoustonKansasSMUTexas Tech
2.6%
<0.1%
KansasOklahoma StSMUUCF
2.5%
0.2%
BaylorHoustonSMUUtah
2.5%
<0.1%
BaylorSMUUCFUtah
2.5%
0.3%
ArizonaHoustonOklahoma StSMU
2.4%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorOklahoma StSMU
2.3%
0.2%
ArizonaBaylorSMUUCF
2.3%
0.3%
CincinnatiSMUUCFUtah
2.3%
0.3%
ArizonaHoustonKansasSMU
2.2%
0.2%
HoustonKansasSMUUCF
1.9%
0.1%
ArizonaCincinnatiSMUTexas Tech
1.8%
0.1%
ArizonaSMUUCFUtah
1.8%
1.1%
ArizonaKansasSMUUtah
1.8%
1.2%
ArizonaHoustonSMUTexas Tech
1.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonSMUUtah
1.6%
0.3%
ArizonaOklahoma StSMUUCF
1.4%
0.3%
ArizonaSMUTexas TechUCF
1.2%
0.3%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

TCUCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com